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Commodities Weekly

Week covered: Monday 28 September – Friday 2 October 2026 · Published Saturday 3 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

1. The shortage is in refined fuel, not crude, and fuel is what feeds inflation. New York Harbor diesel is up 86% since 27 February, the last trading day before the war, against 60% for Brent, and it set a record of $5.365 a gallon on 16 September ^{[1, 2, 3, 4]}. US distillate stocks fell another 2.3 million barrels to 105.2 million, about 14% below the five-year average ^{[5, 6, 7, 8]}. Diesel moves freight, harvests and flights, so its price reaches almost everything people buy.
2. Futures prices understate the squeeze; physical oil costs far more. The EIA's Brent spot price was $113.96 on 29 September, while December Brent futures closed at $102.25 on 2 October ^{[4, 9, 10, 11]}. Part of this week's fall in front-month futures came from the switch from the November to the December contract in a steeply backwardated market ^{[10, 12]}. A drop in the headline futures price is not the same as relief for buyers of cargoes.
3. Gold fell in wartime because the risk-free return rose. COMEX December gold fell 3.68% on the week to $4,162.30, even after weak US jobs data ^{[13, 14, 15, 16]}. The US 10-year yield closed at 5.29% on 30 September, the highest since 2002 ^{[17, 18]}. When Treasuries pay over 5%, holding a metal that pays nothing is expensive, and the dollar's rise adds to the cost.
4. Copper is caught between tight mines and weak factories. LME copper fell 2.23% on the week ^{[19, 20]}. Supply is tight, with warehouse stocks in Shanghai down sharply and labour trouble at Chile's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine ^[20]. Demand signals are weak, with high energy costs and signs of industrial slowdown in China cited against it ^[20]. Near-term prices are following growth fears and the dollar; the supply story is building underneath.
5. Food is splitting: less US wheat, more corn, and governments stepping in. USDA put the 2026 US wheat crop at 1.53 billion bushels, 23% below 2025, while corn stocks on 1 September were up 35% ^{[21, 22, 23]}. India cut import duty on crude palm and soybean oil to 5% from 10% ^{[24, 25, 26]}, and palm oil futures in Malaysia fell 2.9% on the week ^{[27, 28]}. Food security is being managed by governments as actively as energy.
6. Supply decisions are political now. The G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels with diesel first ^{[29, 30]}, Chinese refiners suspended October fuel exports ^{[31, 32]}, and the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts meet on 4 October ^{[33, 34]}. Prices will be set as much by governments' choices as by demand.

Mind, matter, money: what the week did to raw materials

Three contests shape every commodity price: technology (mind) decides what the world needs, from chips to power; control of energy, metals and food (matter) decides who can supply it and who can deny it; and money decides what it costs to hold any of it, through interest rates and the dollar.

Mind: technology and the materials behind it

• The US–China truce keeps China's rare-earth export controls suspended until 10 January 2027 ^{[35, 36]}. Rare earths are the materials in magnets, motors and defence electronics, and China holds that lever in reserve rather than giving it up.
• The IMF counts AI investment as a positive force for growth against the energy shock ^[37]. That supports demand for power and industrial metals over time, but this week growth worries and the dollar mattered more: copper fell ^{[19, 20]}.
• Gained ground: China, which keeps its rare-earth leverage. Lost ground: manufacturers that depend on Chinese materials and have no alternative before January.

Matter: energy, metals and food

• Refining is the bottleneck. The IMF said refined-fuel prices are far above pre-war levels because refining capacity is limited ^[37], China kept its fuel at home ^{[31, 32]}, and US distillate stocks keep falling ^{[5, 7]}.
• Crude flows are recovering, but the route is still at risk: market reports said Middle East exports have recovered towards pre-war levels, while the war around the Strait of Hormuz continues ^{[12, 31, 38]}.
• Governments are drawing down buffers: the G7 release comes on top of an IEA programme that has already used about 325 million of 400 million barrels ^{[29, 38, 39]}, and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell another 0.8 million barrels to 283.8 million ^{[5, 6]}.
• Food is a security issue too: G20 trade ministers agreed a statement on "the weaponization of food through coercive trade actions" ^[40], and India cut edible-oil import duties to protect its consumers ^{[24, 25]}.
• Gained ground: producers with spare refining capacity and exporters of fuel. Lost ground: importers of diesel, and countries whose emergency stocks are running down.

Money: interest rates, the dollar and positioning

• Rates beat war risk for gold: the metal fell 3.68% while US 10-year yields hit 2002 highs ^{[13, 14, 17, 18]}.
• The dollar index rose 0.95% on the week ^{[41, 42]}, which raises the cost of every dollar-priced commodity for buyers paying in other currencies. The rupee, for example, is down 6.4% against the dollar this year ^[43].
• Speculators pulled back. Managed-money net positions fell in nine of ten major contracts in the week to 29 September; sugar was the only rise ^{[44, 45, 46, 47]}.
• Gained ground: the dollar and cash yielding over 5%. Lost ground: assets that pay nothing, from gold to stockpiled commodities.

Where the players stand

How the week connected

1. War → crude risk. The conflict keeps the Strait of Hormuz disrupted ^[38], so crude carries a premium; physical Brent stayed far above futures ^{[4, 9, 10]}.
2. Limited refining → diesel. Refined-fuel prices are far above pre-war levels ^[37], diesel set a record ^{[1, 2]}, and China held back its fuel exports ^{[31, 32]}.
3. Diesel → state action. The G7 opened its reserves, diesel first ^{[29, 30]}.
4. Fuel → inflation → yields. Euro-area energy inflation reached 18.8% ^{[58, 59]}, China's factory input prices jumped ^{[49, 50, 51]}, and the US 10-year yield hit a 2002 high ^{[17, 18]}.
5. Yields and the dollar → metals. Gold fell 3.68% ^{[13, 14]}, December silver futures lost more than 6% ^{[61, 62]}, and speculators cut their positions ^[47].
6. Policy → food. India's duty cut ^{[24, 25]} met weak Malaysian palm exports ^{[27, 60]}; US wheat supply fell while corn stocks rose ^{[21, 23]}.

Sources for the chart: ^{[1, 2, 3, 4]}.

What it means for you

• If you borrow. Energy is keeping inflation and long-term interest rates high. As long as diesel stays near records, central banks have little room to cut.
• If you hold cash. Three-month US Treasury bills pay about 4.2%, above US inflation of 3.4% ^{[17, 63, 64, 65]}. Cash in the currency of a commodity importer can lose value as the dollar rises ^[43].
• If you invest. The shortage shows up in physical prices and refined products more than in crude futures ^{[1, 9, 10]}. Gold now trades on real yields more than on war headlines ^{[13, 14]}.
• If you run a business. Diesel and freight are the costs to watch. Food businesses face a smaller US wheat crop ^{[21, 22]} and moving edible-oil prices ^{[24, 27]}. Contracts with fuel surcharges reprice first.
• If you pay for fuel and food. Diesel set a record of $5.365 a gallon on 16 September and is up 86% since 27 February ^{[1, 2, 3, 4]}; through freight and farming it reaches almost everything people buy. Governments are stepping in on food: India cut import duty on crude palm and soybean oil to 5% from 10% to protect consumers ^{[24, 25, 26]}. With US distillate stocks about 14% below normal before the heating season ^{[5, 6, 7, 8]}, heating and transport costs are where household bills rise first.
• If you buy in another currency. Commodities are priced in dollars, so a firm dollar raises their cost for buyers elsewhere even when the dollar price is flat ^{[41, 42]}.

The detail

1. Crude oil: futures fell on the roll, physical barrels stayed dear

What happened. On Thursday 1 October December Brent rose $4.28 to settle at $102.31, and November WTI rose $2.45 to $92.87 ^{[10, 48, 66]}. On Friday Brent December closed at $102.25 and WTI November at $91.11, down $1.76 on the day and 1.4% on the week from $92.41 ^{[10, 15, 16, 48]}. Analysts at BMI said the weekly fall in front-month Brent was largely due to the switch from the November to the December contract in a steeply backwardated market ^{[10, 12]}.

Spot versus futures. The EIA's Brent spot price was $119.97 on 28 September and $113.96 on 29 September ^{[4, 9]}. That is far above futures prices later in the week, which shows buyers of physical cargoes paying a premium for oil now.

OPEC+. The seven countries with voluntary cuts are Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman. On 6 September they kept October output unchanged and set their next meeting for 4 October ^{[33, 34]}.

Knock-on effects. A backwardated market with a physical premium means the shortage is real and immediate. A futures rally or fall can mislead; the spot price and refined-product prices are where importers feel the cost.

2. US inventories for the week ending 25 September

The EIA report released on 30 September showed ^{[5, 6, 7]}:

• Commercial crude rose 0.922 million barrels to 427.320 million.
• Total motor gasoline fell 1.683 million barrels to 204.362 million.
• Distillate fell 2.251 million barrels to 105.180 million, about 14% below the five-year average ^[8].
• The Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 0.785 million barrels to 283.767 million.
• Refinery utilisation slipped to 92.5% from 94.0% ^{[5, 67]}.

Knock-on effects. Distillate stocks this far below normal, with refineries running less, leave the US with little cushion going into the heating season. That is why the G7 release targets diesel.

3. Metals: rates beat war risk

Gold. COMEX December gold settled at $4,162.30 on Friday, down $40.00 on the day and 3.68% on the week from $4,321.20 ^{[13, 14, 15, 16]}. It rose after the payrolls data, then turned lower ^{[13, 14]}.

Silver and platinum group metals. December silver futures closed the week below $61, down more than 6% from $64.80 on 25 September ^{[61, 62]}. Platinum and palladium also fell on Friday ^{[14, 68, 69]}.

Copper. The LME official three-month price fell 2.23% on the week ^{[19, 20]}. Shanghai warehouse stocks have fallen sharply, Chile's August output fell, and supervisors at Escondida rejected a contract offer; high energy costs and signs of weakness in China weighed on prices ^[20].

Knock-on effects. Metals are trading on money first: real yields, the dollar and positioning. If US yields ease after a soft inflation reading, gold and silver have room to recover; if yields keep rising, the pressure stays.

4. Natural gas

What happened. US working gas rose 64 billion cubic feet to 3,415 Bcf in the week to 25 September, 2.4% above the five-year average and 3.9% below a year earlier ^{[70, 71]}. Henry Hub spot was $3.18 on 29 September ^{[72, 73]}. November futures closed at $3.035 on Friday, about 6% lower on the week ^{[74, 75]}.

Knock-on effects. US gas is the one major energy market without a shortage this autumn. Speculators added to bets against it: the managed-money net short grew by 67,252 contracts ^[46].

5. Agriculture and edible oils

Grains. USDA's Small Grains Summary put 2026 US wheat production at 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from 1.99 billion in 2025, with yield at 48.1 bushels an acre against 53.3 ^{[21, 22]}. Corn stocks on 1 September were 2.10 billion bushels, up 35%; soybean stocks were 315 million bushels, down 3%; wheat stocks were 1.85 billion bushels, down 14% ^{[22, 23]}. On Friday December corn closed at $4.97¾, November soybeans at $12.78¼ and December Chicago wheat at $6.83 ^{[15, 76, 77, 78]}.

Sugar. March raw sugar, now the front month, closed at 19.93 cents a pound on 2 October, up 5.23% on the day ^{[79, 80]}. The expiring October contract had settled at 17.63 cents on 30 September ^{[81, 82]}.

Edible oils. India cut basic customs duty on edible oils from 24 September ^{[24, 83]}:

• Crude palm and crude soybean oil: 5%, from 10%.
• Crude sunflower oil: nil, from 10%.
• Refined palm and refined soybean oil: 27.5%, from 32.5%.
• Refined sunflower oil: 22.5%, from 32.5%.

Malaysian December palm oil futures closed at MYR 4,535 a tonne on 2 October, down MYR 137 (about 2.9%) on the week ^{[27, 28]}. Cargo surveyor ITS estimated Malaysia's September exports fell 17.1% from August ^{[27, 60]}.

Knock-on effects. A much smaller US wheat crop tightens one of the world's staple grains, while ample corn keeps feed costs in check. India's duty cut should lift its imports of palm and soybean oil over the coming months, which would support prices once Malaysia's export slump passes.

6. Positioning: who is betting on what

Managed-money positions, futures only, as of Tuesday 29 September ^{[44, 45, 46, 47, 84]}:

Knock-on effects. Funds cut exposure almost everywhere, which fits a market where 5% Treasuries make holding commodities more expensive. Sugar was the one exception, consistent with this week's supply worries.

Key data table

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Sunday 4 October: OPEC+ sets November output

Who decides: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman ^{[33, 34]}.

• Hold output (expected ^{[52, 53]}). Crude supply barely changes; diesel stays the constraint and refining margins stay high.
• Raise output. Crude eases, but diesel only follows if refiners can process more.
• Cut output. Crude jumps, inflation fears and yields rise, and gold faces more pressure from rates.

Most likely: a hold. Crude supply barely changes, so the squeeze stays in refined fuel: diesel stays the constraint and refining margins stay high.

Tuesday 6 October: the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook

What it tells you: how the US energy agency now sees prices and supply into winter ^[86]. A higher price forecast would mean the agency expects the squeeze to outlast the G7 release; a lower one would mean it expects the release to work.

Wednesday 7 October: US inventories for the week to 2 October

What it tells you: whether distillate stocks keep falling ^[87]. Another draw would show the G7 release arriving too slowly; a build would ease the diesel premium.

From 7 October: does China let fuel exports resume?

Who decides: Beijing, after its holiday ^[32].

• Exports resume. Asian diesel supply improves and the premium narrows.
• The suspension is extended. Diesel tightens into winter and refining margins rise again.

Most likely: the suspension holds through October. Beijing has tied exports to domestic stocks returning to pre-war levels, and stocks are well short of that ^[32]. That keeps Asian diesel tight into winter, with refining margins rising again.

Thursday 8 October and Friday 9 October: gas storage, WASDE and positioning

• Gas storage, 8 October ^[70]: whether the US gas surplus keeps building. Another large build keeps US gas the one energy market without a shortage; a small one would test the funds betting against it.
• USDA WASDE, 9 October ^[88]: the first full balance sheet after the smaller wheat crop. A tighter wheat balance would lift wheat prices; a looser one would ease them, with ample corn keeping feed costs in check.
• CFTC positioning, 9 October ^[89]: whether funds keep cutting exposure. More selling would show money still leaving commodities for 5% Treasuries; a turn would show buyers coming back.

Wednesday 14 October: US consumer prices for September

What it tells you: whether US inflation keeps yields rising ^{[90, 91]}. A hot reading lifts yields and presses gold further; a soft one gives metals room.

Around 18 October: tariffs on buyers of Russian crude

Who decides: the US President ^{[54, 55]}.

• Impose duties on covered countries. Russian barrels are pushed out of some markets and prices rise for other crude.
• Waive under the national-interest clause. Russian barrels keep flowing to their current buyers and that pressure eases.
• Partial action. Duties on some buyers and waivers for others, so only part of the Russian flow has to find new buyers.

Most likely: partial action, with the threat used as leverage. The White House has not said what rates or waivers it intends ^[92], and trade analysts expect Washington to use the threat to push buyers such as India to cut Russian purchases and offer trade concessions ^[93]. That shifts some demand from Russian crude to other grades, which supports their prices, without a full cut-off.

Where this is heading

Base case: tight fuel, weak metals, firm food. Diesel stays near records into the northern winter, crude holds a war premium, and physical prices stay above futures. Gold stays under pressure while US yields stay above 5%. Signposts: distillate stocks, China's fuel exports, the spot-to-futures gap in Brent.

Upside for buyers: a Hormuz deal. Crude and diesel fall quickly, the inflation fear in bond yields fades, and gold recovers as real yields ease.

Downside: winter and escalation. A cold northern winter with refined-fuel exports still restricted would push diesel to new records and drag food and freight prices up with it.

The long run. Commodities are being treated as security assets: governments hold reserves, restrict exports, cut import duties and punish each other's customers. Prices will carry a security premium for longer, and the countries with their own energy, refining and food supply will be paid for it.

Sources

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