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India Markets & Economy Weekly

Week covered: Monday 28 September – Friday 2 October 2026 · Published Saturday 3 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

1. India is losing the competition for foreign capital to a 5% Treasury and to North Asia's chip markets. Foreign investors have sold about ₹2.7 lakh crore of Indian shares this year to 1 October, against ₹1.66 lakh crore in the whole of 2025 ^{[1, 2]}. In the four sessions to 1 October they sold a net ₹34,966 crore, and the Nifty 50 fell 3.11% for an eighth straight weekly loss, the longest run in 25 years ^{[3, 4, 5, 6]}. In the same week Taiwan's TAIEX closed at a record and Japan's Nikkei rose 2.93%, led by chip stocks ^{[7, 8, 9, 10]}. PTI's monthly flow report named rotation towards "AI-led North Asian markets" among the reasons for September's selling ^[2].
2. The rupee is absorbing India's energy bill, and the central bank is spending reserves to slow the fall. The rupee closed at 96.31 per dollar on 1 October, its weakest close since 24 July ^{[11, 12, 13]}. On ECB reference rates it is down 6.4% against the dollar since 2 January, while the won is up 7.2% and the yuan 4.3% ^[14]. RBI reserves fell $18.34 billion in the week to 25 September after $14.88 billion the week before, $33.2 billion in two weeks ^{[15, 16, 17, 18, 19]}. Selling dollars at this pace buys time for oil or US yields to turn; it cannot replace that turn.
3. India's yield cushion over US Treasuries is thinning. The 10-year government bond closed at 7.19% on 30 September, a two-and-a-half-year high, while the US 10-year closed at 5.29% ^{[20, 21, 22, 23]}. India's extra yield fell from 2.31 to 1.90 percentage points over the quarter. The rupee's 6.4% fall this year is worth more than three years of that extra yield, and foreign investors sold ₹10,431 crore of government bonds held through the Fully Accessible Route in September ^{[1, 2]}.
4. Inflation is building in the pipeline, so markets expect the RBI to raise rates on 7 October. Wholesale inflation was 9.92% in August, with fuel and power at 22.9% ^{[24, 25]}. Consumer inflation was 4.82%, a third month above the 4% target ^{[26, 27, 28]}. Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect the repo rate to rise to 5.50% from 5.25% ^{[28, 29]}. A rise would lift loan rates linked to the repo rate, and it would defend the rupee as much as the inflation target.
5. The domestic economy is not the problem. September GST collections rose 14.7% to ₹2.04 lakh crore, the manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1, and non-food bank credit grew 18.8% in the year to August ^{[30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35]}. Domestic institutions bought ₹33,455 crore of shares in the week while foreigners sold ^{[3, 4]}. The sell-off is being priced from outside, through oil, US yields and the competition for capital, so a turn in any of those would meet an economy that is still growing.
6. India's oil choices now carry a trade price. A new US law requires tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian crude from around 18 October unless the President waives them ^{[36, 37, 38]}. India's Russian crude imports fell in September to the lowest since April as refiners bought more from the Middle East ^{[39, 40]}. An interim trade deal with the US is "not imminent", in the US Trade Representative's words ^{[41, 42]}. Replacing discounted Russian barrels lowers the tariff risk but raises the import bill.

Mind, matter, money: where India stands

Three contests decide which economies gain ground: who leads in technology (mind), who secures energy, materials and food (matter), and whose currency, rates and markets capital trusts (money). India's growth is strong, but this week each contest worked against it at the margin.

Mind: technology and the AI cycle

• Global equity money is following the AI hardware cycle. Taiwan's TAIEX closed at a record ^{[7, 8]}, and the Nikkei jumped 3.3% on 1 October, led by chip stocks after upbeat guidance from Micron ^{[10, 43]}. PTI named rotation towards "AI-led North Asian markets" as one reason foreign investors sold Indian shares in September ^[2].
• India's technology exposure is mainly IT services, and that was the one place the week went its way. Nifty IT was the only sectoral index to gain, up 0.5% for the week and 2.2% on 1 October, while the weaker rupee raised the rupee value of dollar revenue ^{[3, 6, 44, 45, 46]}.
• Technology is now part of trade bargaining. Modi described his 30 September call with Trump as covering trade, defence, energy and critical technologies ^{[47, 48]}.
• The US–China truce, which keeps China's rare-earth export controls suspended, now runs to 10 January 2027 ^{[49, 50]}. That removes a near-term supply risk for India's electronics and vehicle makers, but leaves it in Beijing's hands.
• Gained ground: IT services exporters, on the currency. Lost ground: India's equity market in the race for AI-driven flows.

Matter: energy, metals and food

• India pays for the energy shock in its currency and its prices. Brent stayed above $100 a barrel through the week ^{[51, 52]}. Wholesale fuel and power prices were 22.9% higher than a year earlier in August ^{[24, 25]}. GST on imports rose 25.9% in September against 10.1% for domestic GST, consistent with costlier imports ^{[30, 31]}.
• India is reshaping its supply under US pressure. Russian crude imports fell in September to the lowest since April while Middle East imports rose ^{[39, 40]}, ahead of the 30-day step in the US law that targets the largest buyers of Russian oil ^{[36, 37]}. Analysts at the ship-tracking firm Kpler said the drop does not mean India is moving away from Russian crude altogether ^{[39, 40]}.
• The region's fuel market tightened. Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports for October ^{[53, 54]}, and the G7 agreed a 100-million-barrel release weighted to diesel ^{[55, 56]}, drawing on an IEA programme that has already released about 325 million of the 400 million barrels pledged in March ^{[57, 58]}.
• Gained ground: supply diversification, with more Middle East barrels. Lost ground: the cost of energy, and the freedom to buy the cheapest barrel.

Money: the rupee, rates and capital

• The rupee has been the weakest of Asia's large currencies this year: down 6.4% against the dollar while the won rose 7.2% and the yuan 4.3% ^[14]. Against the yuan the rupee is down 10.2% since 2 January on the same ECB rates ^[14].
• The RBI is defending with reserves. Reserves fell $33.2 billion in the two weeks to 25 September, to $747.56 billion ^{[15, 16, 17, 18, 19]}.
• India's yield premium over Treasuries fell to 1.90 points at the end of September from 2.31 at the end of June ^{[20, 21, 22, 23, 59]}. Foreign investors sold government bonds as well as shares in September ^{[1, 2]}.
• Domestic money is the counterweight. Domestic institutions bought ₹33,455 crore of shares in the week, almost matching foreign selling of ₹34,966 crore ^{[3, 4]}.
• Gained ground: domestic savings as a source of capital. Lost ground: the rupee, the reserve buffer and India's appeal to foreign bond investors.

Where the players stand, seen from India

How the week connected for India

1. US yields → India's yield premium. The US 10-year rose to 5.29% on 30 September ^{[22, 23]}. India's 10-year rose too, to 7.19%, but by less over the quarter, so the extra return for holding rupee bonds narrowed to 1.90 points ^{[20, 21, 59]}.
2. Premium and rupee → foreign selling. With the rupee falling, a thinner premium made Indian assets less attractive, and foreign investors sold shares and bonds in September ^{[1, 2]}.
3. Oil and the dollar → the rupee → reserves. Brent above $100 and a firm dollar pushed the rupee to 96.31 on 1 October ^{[11, 12, 51]}. The RBI sold dollars, and reserves fell $33.2 billion in two weeks ^{[15, 17, 18]}.
4. Reserves and liquidity → bonds. Selling dollars drains rupees from banks, and the RBI also sold ₹1 lakh crore of government bonds in September to absorb surplus cash ^{[71, 72, 73, 74, 75]}. Extra bond supply and US yields lifted India's 10-year yield to a two-and-a-half-year high ^{[20, 21]}.
5. Rates, rupee and flows → equities. Midcaps, smallcaps and autos fell the most, and IT was the only sector to rise ^{[3, 46]}. The Nifty recorded its eighth straight weekly loss ^{[3, 6]}.
6. Costs → the RBI. Wholesale inflation near 10% and a weaker rupee point to more price pressure ahead, which is why economists expect a rate rise on 7 October ^{[24, 25, 28, 29]}.

Sources for the chart: ^[14].

India against its competitors for capital

The hurdle every market has to clear: 10-year government bond yields

Sources for the yields: ^{[20, 21, 22, 23, 59]}.

Three points stand out. First, of the markets that publish daily foreign flows, India and Korea lost the most foreign money this week, both while US yields were rising ^{[3, 98]}. Second, the currencies split on trade, not on equity flows: foreigners sold Korean shares this week and the won still rose, and over the year the won is up 7.2% while the rupee is down 6.4% ^[14]. Korea earns dollars from chip exports; India spends them on oil. Third, the rupee's fall this year (6.4%) is larger than three years of India's current yield premium over Treasuries (1.90 points a year). For a foreign bond investor that is the arithmetic of leaving, and it only reverses if the rupee stabilises or the premium widens.

What it means for you

• If you borrow in rupees. Loans linked to the repo rate reprice when the RBI moves, and economists expect a 0.25-point rise on 7 October ^{[28, 29]}. Long-term borrowing costs follow the 10-year government bond, now at 7.19% ^{[20, 21]}. Fixed rates offered now already include the expected rise; the RBI's guidance will show whether more are coming.
• If you hold rupee cash or deposits. Overnight money pays about 5.22% and consumer inflation is 4.82% ^{[21, 26, 99, 100]}, so the real return is thin. Deposit rates tend to follow a repo rise with a lag, so the rates on offer now may not be the peak.
• If you invest in Indian assets. Domestic institutions have been the buyers and foreigners the sellers, and that balance decides the market from here ^{[3, 4]}. For anyone measuring returns in dollars, the rupee has taken 6.4% off this year ^[14]. Exporters such as IT services gain from a weak rupee; importers and rate-sensitive sectors such as autos lose ^{[3, 46]}.
• If you run a business. Imported inputs are getting dearer: wholesale manufactured-goods inflation was 8.37% in August ^{[24, 25]}, and the rupee is down 10.2% against the yuan this year ^[14]. Exporters gain on price, and September's new export orders came from Brazil, Europe, the UAE and the US ^{[32, 70]}. Anyone selling to the US should plan for the 10% Section 301 duty to stay and for a tariff decision around 18 October ^{[36, 37, 48, 60]}.
• If you pay household bills. Consumer inflation is 4.82%, a third month above the 4% target ^{[26, 27, 28]}, and the pipeline is hotter: wholesale fuel and power prices are up 22.9% and food 7.05% ^{[24, 25]}. Wholesale costs tend to reach shop prices with a delay, and a weaker rupee makes imported fuel dearer, so household price pressure is more likely to build than ease in the months ahead.
• If you need dollars. The rupee is close to its weakest level this year, about 96.8 per dollar on 20 May on ECB and Federal Reserve rates ^{[13, 101]}. The RBI has been selling reserves to slow the fall ^{[15, 16]}. A pause in that support, or a jump in oil, would test that level.

The detail

1. Equities: an eighth straight weekly loss

What happened. The Nifty 50 closed Thursday 1 October at 22,421.95 and the Sensex at 71,909.70, down from 23,140.50 and 73,895.74 on 25 September, falls of 3.11% and 2.69% ^{[5, 6, 76, 102]}. Markets were shut on Friday 2 October for Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti, so the week had four sessions ^{[103, 104]}. On 1 October alone the Sensex fell 570.59 points (0.79%) and the Nifty 198.50 points (0.88%), a fourth straight losing session ^{[6, 76, 102]}. It was the Nifty's eighth straight weekly loss, the longest run in 25 years ^{[3, 6]}.

The selling was broad. Midcap and smallcap indices fell more than the Nifty, and autos were among the heaviest sectoral losers ^{[3, 46]}. Nifty IT was the only sectoral index to gain, up 0.5% for the week ^{[3, 44, 45]}. On 1 October Nifty Auto fell about 3.5% and Nifty IT rose 2.2% ^{[6, 44, 45, 46]}. India VIX, the market's gauge of expected volatility, rose about 7% to 14.46 ^{[46, 105, 106]}.

Why. Market reports cited Brent crude, global bond yields, foreign outflows and a weaker rupee, all at once ^{[3, 46]}.

Knock-on effects. A falling market with firm domestic data is a market priced on external flows. If domestic institutions keep buying at this pace, they cap the fall; if their buying slows while US yields stay above 5%, the correction has further to run.

2. The rupee, reserves and liquidity

What happened. On 1 October the rupee opened at 95.95 and closed at 96.31 per dollar ^{[11, 12]}. The ECB reference rate that day was 96.33 ^[13]. It was the rupee's weakest close since 24 July, but not its weakest this year: that was about 96.8 on 20 May ^{[12, 13, 101]}. Dealers cited a strong dollar, rising US Treasury yields and higher crude prices ^{[11, 12]}.

RBI data published on 2 October show reserves of $747.557 billion on 25 September, down $18.343 billion in a week ^{[15, 16]}:

• Foreign currency assets fell $15.570 billion.
• Gold fell $2.591 billion.
• SDRs fell $0.097 billion and the IMF reserve position $0.086 billion.

The week before, reserves had fallen $14.881 billion to $765.901 billion ^{[17, 18, 19]}. Business Standard and the Free Press Journal both linked the falls partly to RBI dollar sales to support the rupee ^{[16, 17, 18]}. The RBI's release does not split the change between intervention and valuation ^[15].

Liquidity. Banks hold a large cash surplus. The weighted average call rate was 5.22% on 30 September, against a floor of 5.00% at the Standing Deposit Facility and a ceiling of 5.50% at the Marginal Standing Facility ^{[21, 99, 107]}. The RBI sold ₹25,000 crore of government bonds on 28 September ^{[108, 109]}, completing a ₹1 lakh crore programme of bond sales run on 17, 21 and 28 September ^{[71, 72, 73, 74, 75]}. Governor Sanjay Malhotra has said bond sales and FX swaps are among the tools to bring overnight rates closer to the repo rate ^{[28, 110]}.

Knock-on effects. Every dollar the RBI sells takes rupees out of the banking system, and the bond sales take out more. That tightens money from two directions before the committee even meets.

3. Bonds and the 7 October decision

What happened. The benchmark 6.94% 2036 bond closed at 7.1067% on 24 September, 7.1848% on 28 September and 7.1879% on 30 September, a two-and-a-half-year high ^{[20, 21, 75, 109, 111]}. Yields rose 24 basis points in September and 44 over the quarter ^{[20, 21, 59, 112]}. The government sold ₹33,000 crore of bonds on 1 October across 2029, 2033 and 2056 maturities and a 2056 green bond ^{[109, 113, 114, 115]}.

Supply. The government plans ₹7.86 lakh crore of bond sales from October to March in 23 weekly auctions ^{[115, 116, 117]}, and has cut its full-year borrowing to ₹15,99,506 crore from the budgeted ₹17,20,000 crore ^{[116, 117]}.

The decision. The Monetary Policy Committee meets 5–7 October and announces on 7 October ^{[28, 118]}. The repo rate is 5.25%, unchanged at the last four reviews after cuts totalling 1.25 points in 2025 ^{[119, 120]}. Nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll expect a rise to 5.50% ^{[28, 29]}. Inflation is the main reason: consumer prices rose 4.82% in August, after 4.38% in June and 4.45% in July ^{[26, 27, 28]}.

Knock-on effects. Bond yields above 7.18% already price a rise. What will move markets is the guidance: whether the RBI signals more rises, how it plans to use bond sales and FX swaps, and how much reserve it is willing to spend on the rupee.

4. Domestic data: firm activity, rising pipeline prices

GST. September gross collections were ₹2.04 lakh crore, up 14.7% from ₹1.77 lakh crore a year earlier ^{[30, 31, 121]}:

• Domestic revenue was ₹1.38 lakh crore (+10.1%).
• GST on imports was ₹65,525 crore (+25.9%).
• Refunds fell 3% to ₹27,001 crore.
• Net collections were ₹1.77 lakh crore (+18.1%).

April–September gross collections reached ₹12.46 lakh crore (+11.6%) ^{[30, 31]}.

PMI. The HSBC India Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in September from 52.8 in August ^{[32, 33]}, below the 55.7 flash estimate ^{[122, 123]}. The survey found ^{[32, 70]}:

• Output grew at the fastest pace in four months.
• New orders rose at the fastest pace since February.
• Export orders came from Brazil, Europe, the UAE and the US.
• Hiring was the strongest since May.
• Input-cost inflation picked up but stayed below its long-run average.

The July–September quarter averaged 53.8, the lowest since the same quarter of 2021 ^{[32, 70]}. The flash services PMI for September was 55.8 ^{[122, 124]}.

Prices. Wholesale inflation rose to 9.92% in August from 9.78% in July. Fuel and power rose 22.9%, food 7.05% and manufactured products 8.37% ^{[24, 25]}.

Credit and output. Non-food bank credit grew 18.8% in the year to the fortnight ended 31 August, against 10.2% a year earlier. Services credit grew 24.3%, industry 18.2% and personal loans 16.9% ^{[34, 35]}. Core-sector output growth slowed to 4.8% in August from a revised 5.0% in July ^{[125, 126]}.

Fiscal. The central government's deficit for April–August was ₹7,10,249 crore, 41.9% of the full-year target, against 38.1% a year earlier ^{[21, 127]}. Spending was ₹20.78 lakh crore, 38.9% of the budget ^{[21, 127]}. The full-year target is 4.3% of GDP ^{[117, 127]}.

Knock-on effects. Credit growing near 19% and wholesale prices rising near 10% do not describe an economy that needs cheaper money. That leaves the RBI free to put the rupee and inflation first, and it means the earnings base under Indian shares is holding even as prices fall.

5. External balance sheet, trade and regulation

External debt. External debt was $778.2 billion at the end of June, up $15.4 billion on the quarter and equal to 20.8% of GDP ^{[128, 129]}. Debt due within a year was 50.5% of reserves, and the debt service ratio was 5.6% ^{[128, 129]}. Those ratios are moderate, but the last two weeks show how quickly reserves can be spent.

Trade. Modi and Trump spoke by phone on 30 September ^{[47, 48]}. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at the G20 trade ministers' meeting in Milwaukee, and Goyal called the talks on an interim agreement productive ^{[42, 130]}. Greer said a deal was not imminent but that the two sides had "identified the universe of items that are sticking points" ^{[41, 42, 131]}. Indian goods entering the US face a 10% Section 301 duty imposed in July ^{[48, 60]}.

Regulation. SEBI's board approved changes on 24 September that let foreign portfolio investors trade non-agricultural commodity derivatives, and widened what portfolio managers may invest in ^[132]. On 1 October the RBI simplified approvals for mutual funds, insurers and pension funds buying further large stakes in banks ^[133].

Knock-on effects. The trade talks and the Russian-oil tariff decision now sit on the same calendar. A signed interim deal, or a waiver for India, would ease the rupee and exporters together; neither is in place yet.

Key data table

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Sunday 4 October: OPEC+ sets November output

Who decides: the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts ^{[134, 135]}.

• Hold output (expected ^{[136, 137]}). Brent stays near $100, and India's import bill and the pressure on the rupee stay where they are.
• Raise output. Brent eases, the rupee gets relief, and the RBI can spend fewer reserves.
• Cut output. Brent jumps, the rupee weakens further, and a larger RBI rise becomes more likely.

Most likely: a hold. India's oil bill stays where it is, and so does the pressure on the rupee and the RBI's reserves.

Monday 5 to Wednesday 7 October: the RBI decides

Who decides: the RBI Monetary Policy Committee; the decision is announced on 7 October ^{[28, 118]}.

• Raise the repo rate to 5.50%, the expected move ^{[28, 29]}. Loan rates linked to the repo rise; the rupee gets support; equities have largely priced it.
• Raise and signal more. Stronger support for the rupee and for foreign bond investors, at a cost to growth and to rate-sensitive shares.
• Hold at 5.25%. The burden stays on reserves; the rupee and bonds would likely sell off, and foreign selling would continue.

Most likely: a 0.25-point rise to 5.50%. Loan rates linked to the repo go up and the rupee gets some support, but with a 5% Treasury on offer, the outlook for foreign money turns on the guidance on liquidity and FX swaps more than on the move itself.

Tuesday 6 October: final services PMI for September

What it tells you: whether services are as firm as the 55.8 flash reading suggested ^{[122, 138]}. A strong number supports the case that the economy can absorb higher rates.

Monday 5 to Friday 9 October: ₹36,000 crore of government bond auctions

What it tells you: the auction includes ₹13,000 crore of 50-year bonds and ₹23,000 crore of 15-year bonds ^[115]. Weak demand for long bonds, with foreign investors selling, would push long yields and long-term borrowing costs higher.

Wednesday 7 October: minutes of the Fed's September meeting

What they tell you: whether US officials still lean towards more rises ^{[139, 140]}. A hawkish tone keeps the Treasury hurdle high and India's yield premium thin; a dovish one gives the rupee room.

Thursday 8 October: TCS results

What they tell you: TCS reports September-quarter results and considers a second interim dividend ^{[141, 142]}. It is the first read on whether India's IT exporters are winning business in the AI cycle as well as gaining from the rupee. Strong orders would give foreign investors one reason to stay in Indian shares; weak ones would strengthen the pull of North Asia's chip markets.

Friday 9 October (expected): weekly reserves data

What it tells you: how many dollars the RBI sold in the week to 2 October. The last two releases came on Fridays ^{[15, 17, 18]}. A third large fall would show the RBI still holding the line; a small one would mean it is letting the rupee find its level.

The following week: inflation data on 12 and 14 October

• India consumer prices for September, 12 October ^{[143, 144]}. A reading near 5% would confirm the RBI's case for rises.
• US consumer prices, 14 October ^{[145, 146]}. A hot reading would lift Treasury yields and thin India's premium further.

Around 18 October: US tariffs on buyers of Russian crude

Who decides: the US President, under the new law's 30-day deadline ^{[36, 37]}.

• Impose duties of up to 100% on covered countries, India included. A severe blow to exports to the US, and pressure to stop buying Russian crude entirely.
• Waive for India under the national-interest clause. Relief for exporters and the rupee, likely tied to progress on the trade deal.
• Delay or act selectively. Uncertainty continues, and India keeps cutting Russian purchases to reduce exposure.

Most likely: delay or selective action, with the threat used as leverage. The White House has not said what rates or waivers it intends ^[147], and trade analysts expect Washington to use the threat to push India to cut Russian purchases and offer concessions in the trade talks ^[148].

What it tells you: how far Washington will use market access to change where India buys its oil. Indian markets close on 20 October for Dussehra ^{[103, 104]}.

Where this is heading

Base case: a managed rupee and expensive money through the end of 2026. The RBI raises rates and keeps selling dollars, the rupee is held near current levels, and foreign selling slows but does not reverse while US yields stay above 5%. Indian shares follow oil and Treasury yields more than domestic data. Signposts: weekly reserves, foreign bond flows, Brent against $100, and India's yield premium over Treasuries.

Upside: oil falls and the US relents. A deal that reopens Hormuz would cut India's import bill, lift the rupee and pull foreign money back towards a domestic economy that is still growing. A waiver under the Russian-oil law, or a signed interim trade deal, would add to it. Signposts: Brent well below $100, the rupee back below 95, foreign buying of bonds.

Downside: tariffs and oil together. US duties on India, a winter spike in oil and Treasury yields above their recent highs would push the rupee through this year's weakest level, force bigger RBI rises and extend the equity slide. Signposts: reserves falling by $15 billion or more a week, the rupee past 96.8, wholesale inflation above 10%.

The long run. India has the two things capital usually pays for: growth and a deep pool of domestic savings. What it lacks in this contest is energy security and a currency that holds up when the dollar and oil rise together. Each leg of the US–China contest touches India. Technology (mind) is drawing money to North Asia's chipmakers, energy (matter) is tying India's oil choices to its trade access, and money is rewarding economies that earn dollars rather than spend them. India's position improves on each front only by building what it lacks: technology made at home, energy it controls, and a currency that does not depend on the RBI's reserves.

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