Global Macro & Markets Weekly
Week covered: Monday 28 September – Friday 2 October 2026 · Published Saturday 3 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni
Key takeaways
- The world's risk-free rate moved higher on bad news. US payrolls rose only 29,000 in September and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 [1, 2]. Markets cut the odds of another Fed hike on 28 October from 64–70% to roughly 14–22% [3, 4, 5]. The US 10-year Treasury yield still closed the week at 5.28%, after a 5.29% close on Wednesday that was the highest since 2002 [6, 7]. When the anchor rate for the whole world rises on weak growth news, investors are charging for inflation and supply risk, and a Fed pause does not remove that charge.
- Every risky asset is now competing with a 5% risk-free return, and capital is choosing. Foreign investors sold Korean shares for six straight sessions, about 9.9 trillion won, and sold a net ₹34,966 crore of Indian shares in the four sessions to 1 October [8, 9, 10, 11]. India's Nifty 50 fell 3.11% and Korea's KOSPI 1.09%. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.93% and Taiwan's TAIEX 0.94% on the AI chip trade [12, 13, 14, 15]. Gold futures fell 3.68%, because a metal that pays nothing is expensive to hold when Treasuries pay over 5% [16, 17].
- The energy shock is spreading into broad inflation, and importers carry the bill. Euro-area inflation jumped to 3.8% with services rising to 3.2% [18, 19]. Tokyo core-core inflation reached 3.0% [20, 21]. China's factory purchasing-price index jumped 4.2 points to 60.8 [22, 23, 24]. Diesel set a record of $5.365 a gallon in New York Harbor on 16 September [25, 26]. Europe, Japan, India and Korea import most of their energy, so they import this inflation too.
- Central banks are splitting, and the split is moving currencies. Australia raised rates to 4.60% [27, 28], markets price at least one more ECB hike by December [29, 30], the Fed may pause, the Bank of Japan is moving slowly [31, 32], China's central bank cut a lending rate [33, 34], and economists expect India's central bank to raise its repo rate to 5.50% on 7 October [35, 36]. On ECB reference rates the rupee is down 6.4% against the dollar since 2 January, while the won is up 7.2% and the yuan 4.3% [37].
- Governments are cushioning the shock with buffers that are running down. The G7 agreed a 100-million-barrel release front-loaded to diesel [38, 39], but the IEA has already released about 325 million of the 400 million barrels it pledged in March [40], and Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports for October [41, 42]. Each new disruption now meets a thinner cushion.
- The US–China contest has a truce on trade and competition everywhere else. Each side will cut tariffs on about $30 billion of the other's goods, and the suspension of China's rare-earth export controls and the US "Affiliates Rule" postponement both run to 10 January 2027 [43, 44, 45]. G20 ministers could not agree on industrial overcapacity [46, 47], and a new US law requires tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian crude or gas from around 18 October unless waived [48, 49].
Mind, matter, money
Three contests decide which economies gain ground: who leads in technology (mind), who controls energy, materials and food (matter), and whose currency, rates and markets the world's capital depends on (money). This week moved all three.
Mind: technology and the AI cycle
- The AI investment cycle is the main force pulling capital into equities against a 5% risk-free return. The IMF called it "a positive impulse" offsetting the energy shock [50].
- Markets inside the AI hardware chain held up. Japan's Nikkei jumped 3.3% on Thursday, led by chip stocks after upbeat guidance from Micron [13, 51], and Taiwan's TAIEX closed at a record [15].
- The US–China technology truce held. China's rare-earth export controls stay suspended and the US "Affiliates Rule" stays postponed, both until 10 January 2027 [45]. Each side is keeping its strongest lever in reserve, which suggests both expect to need it.
- Being in the chip chain is not enough on its own. Foreign investors still sold about 9.9 trillion won of Korean shares in six sessions [8].
- Gained ground: the US AI complex and the Japan–Taiwan supply chain. Lost ground: markets outside that chain that also import their energy.
Matter: energy, metals and food
- Energy is being treated as a security asset again. Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports for October [41, 42], the G7 drew on emergency reserves that are already more than 80% used [38, 40], and New York Harbor diesel set a record [25, 26].
- The cost lands on importers. Brent spot was $113.96 on 29 September against $71.32 on 27 February, the last trading day before the war [52, 53]. Diesel, the fuel that moves goods, is up 86% over the same period against 60% for Brent [25, 52].
- China uses its industrial weight in both directions: it holds back fuel and keeps rare-earth leverage in reserve, while G20 ministers could not agree on its overcapacity in manufactured goods [46, 47].
- Food is now handled as a weapon too. G20 trade ministers agreed a statement on "the weaponization of food through coercive trade actions" [46].
- Copper fell 2.23% on the LME over the week [54, 55], a reminder that near-term metal prices still follow growth worries and the dollar.
- Gained ground: energy exporters and countries with deep reserves. Lost ground: importers with thin buffers, above all India, Europe, Japan and Korea.
Money: the dollar, rates and capital
- The price of money is resetting. Long-term yields are at multi-decade highs across the large economies at once: the US 10-year at 5.28% [6], the UK 10-year gilt touched 5.51% on 1 October, its highest since July 2007 [56, 57], and the 10-year Japanese government bond at about 3.1%, near its highest since August 1996 [58, 59, 60]. Energy-driven inflation, heavy government borrowing (the Bank of England's plan includes £20bn of gilt sales a year [61, 62]) and central banks that are still tightening all push the same way.
- The dollar system is still the centre of gravity. With US yields this high, foreign money left Korea and India [10, 63], and the dollar index rose 0.95% [64, 65].
- Washington used finance as a tool of power twice this week. Treasury designated firms in China, Hong Kong, Turkey, the UAE, Indonesia and Germany in its Iran sanctions [66], and the Graham Act ties access to the US market to buyers' energy choices [48, 49].
- China is running a different playbook: easier credit at home [33, 34], and a yuan that has gained 4.3% against the dollar this year on ECB reference rates [37].
- India is paying in its currency and reserves. The rupee is down 6.4% against the dollar this year [37], and the central bank's reserves fell $18.34 billion in a single week [67, 68].
Where the players stand after this week
| Player | Mind | Matter | Money |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | Leads the AI investment cycle; tech truce with China holds to January [45] | Pushed allies into a diesel release [69, 70, 71] | 5%+ Treasuries pull capital in; sanctions and secondary tariffs [6, 48, 49, 66] |
| China | Rare-earth controls held in reserve until 10 January 2027 [45] | Fuel kept at home [41]; overcapacity dispute unresolved [46] | Easing at home [33]; yuan +4.3% against the dollar this year [37] |
| Euro area | No major move this week | Energy importer; inflation 3.8% [18] | ECB tightening, deposit rate 2.50% [72] |
| Japan | Chip stocks led the Nikkei [51] | Energy importer; Tokyo core-core inflation 3.0% [20] | BoJ normalising slowly; 10-year JGB above 3% [31, 58] |
| India | No major move this week | Russian crude imports at the lowest since April [73, 74] | Rupee −6.4% against the dollar this year; foreign outflows [10, 37] |
| Russia | No major move this week | Its large crude buyers face US tariffs of up to 100% [48, 49] | Sanctions pressure rising [48, 49] |
| Gulf producers | No major move this week | Exports recovering, Hormuz still disrupted [40, 75] | No major move this week |
How the week connected across markets
- Oil and diesel → inflation. Refined-fuel prices are far above pre-war levels because refining capacity is short, as the IMF noted [50]. That pushed euro-area energy inflation to 18.8% [18, 19] and China's input prices up sharply [22, 23, 24].
- Inflation → central banks. The ECB, the BoJ and the RBA have all raised rates since 10 September, and markets price more ECB tightening [27, 29, 72, 76].
- Central banks and supply → long-term yields. Long yields rose even when growth news was weak, which points to term premium rather than rate expectations [1, 6].
- Yields → the dollar and capital flows. The ICE dollar index rose 0.95% on the week [64, 65], and foreign money left Korea and India [8, 10].
- Flows → currencies and equities. The rupee closed at 96.31 per dollar on 1 October [77, 78], Indian shares had an eighth straight weekly loss [10, 79], and gold fell even as war risk stayed high [16, 17].
Japan, Taiwan and the dollar rose; gold, India and copper fell most
Weekly change from the last close before 28 September to the last close of the week
Holidays changed the window for some markets: Korea from 23 Sep, Taiwan and mainland China from 24 Sep, India to 1 Oct and mainland China to 30 Sep. WTI is NYMEX November futures, copper the LME official three-month price, gold COMEX December futures.
Show the data
| Market | Weekly change | From | To | Holiday note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 (Japan) | +2.93% | 66,364.20 (25 Sep) | 68,309.46 (2 Oct) | |
| US dollar index (ICE) | +0.95% | n/a | 101.93 (2 Oct) | |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | +0.94% | 48,024.60 (24 Sep) | 48,475.74 (2 Oct) | Taiwan shut 25 and 28 Sep |
| S&P 500 (US) | −0.27% | 7,743.41 (25 Sep) | 7,722.72 (2 Oct) | |
| KOSPI (Korea) | −1.09% | 7,080.92 (23 Sep) | 7,003.74 (2 Oct) | Korea shut 24 and 25 Sep |
| WTI crude, NYMEX November futures | −1.41% | $92.41 (25 Sep) | $91.11 (2 Oct) | |
| CSI 300 (mainland China) | −1.84% | 4,439.14 (24 Sep) | 4,357.62 (30 Sep) | Shut 25 Sep and from 1 Oct |
| FTSE 100 (UK) | −2.18% | n/a | 10,462 (2 Oct) | |
| Copper, LME official three-month ($/t) | −2.23% | $14,647 (25 Sep) | $14,320 (2 Oct) | |
| Nifty 50 (India) | −3.11% | 23,140.50 (25 Sep) | 22,421.95 (1 Oct) | India shut 2 Oct |
| Gold, COMEX December futures (settlement) | −3.68% | $4,321.20 (25 Sep) | $4,162.30 (2 Oct) |
Sources for the chart: [12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 54, 55, 64, 65, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95].
Asia this week: where the money went
| Market | Index, week | Foreign investors this week | Currency against the dollar, week (ECB) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | Nikkei 225 +2.93% [12, 13] | n/a | Yen 157.59 → 157.68, little changed [37] |
| Taiwan | TAIEX +0.94%, record close [14, 15] | Sold NT$63.2bn on 29 Sep, then bought NT$29.6bn, NT$21.9bn and NT$2.6bn: net about NT$9.0bn sold [96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103] | n/a |
| Korea | KOSPI −1.09% [86, 88, 89] | Net sellers for six straight sessions, about 9.9 trillion won [8, 9] | Won 1,355.05 → 1,348.28, +0.50% [37] |
| Mainland China | CSI 300 −1.84% to 30 Sep; shut from 1 Oct for National Day [92, 93] | n/a | Yuan 6.7132 → 6.7046, +0.13% [37] |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng −2.6% on Friday alone, to 23,972 [104, 105] | No mainland buying through Stock Connect on 2 Oct while the mainland was shut [105, 106] | n/a |
| India | Nifty 50 −3.11% to 1 Oct [79, 94, 95] | FPIs sold a net ₹34,966 crore in four sessions; domestic institutions bought ₹33,455 crore [10, 11] | Rupee 95.82 → 96.32, −0.53% [37] |
| United States | S&P 500 −0.27% [84, 85] | n/a | Dollar index +0.95% [64, 65] |
Three points stand out. Of the markets that publish daily foreign flows, Korea and India lost the most foreign money, in both cases while US yields were rising [63, 77, 107]. In Taiwan, foreign investors were net sellers over the week, about NT$9.0bn, even as the index hit a record, so local investors were the net buyers behind the rally. Hong Kong's Friday slide shows how much its market now depends on mainland money: with Stock Connect buying absent for the holiday, banks and insurers fell hardest [104, 105, 106].
What it means for you
- If you borrow. Long-term borrowing costs are set by long government yields, and those rose on a week of weak US data. A pause by the Fed or any single central bank will not bring fixed rates down while inflation is spreading. Price long-term debt on today's rates.
- If you hold cash. Short-term rates are high almost everywhere. Dollar cash is ahead of US inflation; in the euro area the ECB deposit rate of 2.50% is below inflation of 3.8% [18, 72]. The currency your cash is held in matters as much as the rate.
- If you invest. Each asset now has to beat a 5% Treasury yield. That favours markets with their own growth story (the AI hardware chain) and penalises markets that import energy and rely on foreign money. Gold's fall in wartime shows that real yields and the dollar are in charge for now.
- If you run a business. Diesel is the cost to watch. It moves freight, food and delivery prices, and China's factory input prices are rising too [22, 23, 24], so imported goods may stop getting cheaper. Contracts with fuel surcharges and dollar-priced inputs are where costs rise first.
- If you pay for fuel, food and imports. The energy shock is reaching everyday prices: euro-area energy inflation hit 18.8% and headline inflation 3.8% [18, 19], and in Tokyo food and daily necessities rose [32]. Diesel, which moves almost everything people buy, set a record in September [25, 26]. Until oil and diesel come down, transport, food and imported goods are where prices rise first, most of all in economies that import their energy.
- If you earn or spend in more than one currency. A firm dollar raises the cost of anything priced in dollars, oil above all, for everyone outside the US. Currencies of energy importers with foreign outflows are the most exposed. This year the rupee has fallen while the won and yuan have risen [37].
The detail
1. Euro area: an energy-driven inflation jump puts more ECB hikes on the table
What happened. Eurostat's flash estimate puts euro-area annual inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Prices rose 0.6% on the month [18, 108]. Energy did most of the work: energy inflation rose to 18.8% from 14.3%. Core inflation edged up to 2.5% from 2.4%, and services to 3.2% from 3.0% [18, 19]. By country, Lithuania (6.1%) and Bulgaria (5.6%) were highest, followed by Cyprus and Luxembourg (both 5.2%), and Malta (2.4%) was lowest [18, 108]. Italy accelerated to 4.1% from 3.2%, with France at 3.4% and Germany at 3.3% [18, 108]. The print beat a 3.6% consensus [19, 108].
Why. Energy contributed about 1.7 percentage points of the 3.8%, based on its 9.0% weight in the index [18, 108]. That fits the IMF's observation this week that refined-fuel prices are far above pre-conflict levels because refining capacity is limited [50].
What it means. The ECB raised all three policy rates by 25bp on 10 September (effective 16 September), taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. At that meeting staff projected 2026 headline inflation at 3.0% [72, 109]. The Governing Council said it is "not pre-committing to a particular rate path" [72, 109]. Reuters, citing LSEG data, put the probability of a December hike at 81.8% [29], and Trading Economics said money markets price the deposit rate at about 2.8% by December [110]. The STOXX 600 fell over the week despite gaining on Friday [29, 111]. Reuters reported that euro-area banks posted their biggest weekly fall since April [29].
Knock-on effects. A September print well above the 3.0% the ECB's staff projected for 2026 as a whole makes a pause harder to justify. Higher euro rates support the euro against currencies whose central banks are not tightening, and keep pressure on Europe's indebted governments and banks.
2. The global long end: Treasuries at 2002 highs, JGBs above 3%
What happened. Treasury's official par curve shows the US 10-year at 5.24% on 28 Sep, 5.29% on 30 Sep, 5.24% on 1 Oct and 5.28% on 2 Oct [6, 7]. The 30-year par yield finished at 5.63% [6]. The 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002 intraday on Thursday [17, 112]. Yields fell by as much as 8bp during Friday's session after the weak payrolls report [113, 114], but the 10-year still closed 4bp above Thursday.
Japan's Ministry of Finance data show the 10-year JGB at 3.092% on 1 Oct [58]; the market quote was about 3.1% on 2 Oct, near the highest since August 1996 [59, 115, 116]. The Bund 10-year ended Friday at 3.454%, down more than 6bp on the day [29, 117]. In the UK, the Bank of England's fitted 10-year par yield was 5.38% on Monday 28 Sep and 5.37% on 30 Sep [118]; on a market basis the 10-year gilt touched 5.51% on 1 Oct, its highest since July 2007 [56, 57], and ended the week below 5.4% [119, 120].
Why. The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September, with three of nine members voting for a hike. It projects CPI near 3¾% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027 [61, 62]. At the same meeting it approved a multi-year plan that includes £20bn of annual gilt sales [61, 62]. The FTSE 100 lost about 2.2% on the week to 10,462 [80, 83].
Knock-on effects. Higher JGB yields give Japanese savers a better return at home, which matters for every bond market that relies on Japanese buying. A UK gilt market selling at multi-decade highs while the central bank sells its holdings shows how quickly supply can add to yields. Both feed back into US yields through global portfolio choices.
3. Japan: firm Tankan, hot Tokyo CPI, and a BoJ in no hurry
What happened. The BoJ's September Tankan showed the large-manufacturer index rising to +24 from +22, while large non-manufacturers slipped to +35 from +37 [121, 122, 123]. Small manufacturers improved to +14 from +9 [121, 124]. All four headline groups expect conditions to be worse in December [121]. Tokyo core CPI rose 2.7% y/y against a 2.4% forecast, and core-core rose 3.0% [20, 21, 125]. That was the first time core has been above the BoJ's 2% target since December 2025 [20, 21]. Part of the jump came from water and childcare subsidies being phased out [20, 32], but food, daily necessities and chip-heavy electronics also rose [32]. Services inflation climbed to 2.3% from 1.4% [20, 32].
Why the yen still weakened. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September by a 7–2 vote [21, 76]. The summary of opinions published on 1 October offered fewer hawkish signals than markets expected [126, 127], and analysts read it as implying hikes roughly "every three months" [31]. Traders pared bets on an October hike [31, 32], and USD/JPY was trading just above 158 late on 1 Oct [31, 128].
Markets. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.3% to 68,956.72 on Thursday 1 Oct, the highest close in more than six weeks, led by chip stocks after upbeat guidance from Micron [13, 51]. The Topix rose only 0.57% [51, 129]. The Nikkei closed Friday at 68,309.46 [13, 81].
Knock-on effects. A weak yen props up Japanese exporters and chip stocks but imports energy inflation. The 29–30 October meeting, with new forecasts, is where the BoJ either confirms or resists the market's slower path [32, 126].
4. China: PMIs back above 50, more targeted PBoC support
What happened. The NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5 [22, 23, 24, 130]. Price gauges jumped: the purchasing price index rose 4.2pts to 60.8 and the ex-factory price index rose 3.6pts to 54.0 [22, 23, 24]. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.0, with construction up 3.4pts to 50.3 and services at 50.2 [22, 23, 131, 132]. Twelve of 21 manufacturing industries were in expansion, four more than in August [22, 23, 24].
Policy. On 29 September the PBoC cut the one-year Pledged Supplementary Lending rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, raised the sci-tech relending quota to 1.4tn yuan from 1.2tn and added 500bn yuan for agriculture, small and private firms [33, 34, 133]. From 1 October, eligible first-home buyers get an interest subsidy on new commercial mortgages of 1 percentage point a year for up to five years per loan, under a scheme with a tentative implementation period of one year [33, 34].
Knock-on effects. China is easing while most others tighten, and its factory prices are rising. If that continues, China stops exporting deflation to the rest of the world, which would remove one of the forces that kept global goods prices down. Mainland shares fell 1.84% on the CSI 300 in the three sessions before the National Day holiday [92, 93], so markets have not yet bought the recovery.
5. Energy policy and the multilateral view
What happened. G7 leaders agreed on Friday 2 October to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel through the IEA, over four months [38, 39]. The IEA said that about 325 million barrels, over 80% of the 400 million barrels pledged in its collective action of 11 March, had been released [40]. Brent briefly fell below $100 after the announcement [39, 134] but settled at $102.25, little changed from Thursday's $102.31, and WTI settled at $91.11 [82, 135, 136]. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict with Iran continues [39, 40].
The IMF's view. At its 1 October briefing the IMF described a global economy shaped by "a negative energy shock and a positive impulse from AI investment", and said disinflation has stalled in some countries [50]. The Annual Meetings run 12–18 October in Bangkok, with new World Economic Outlook forecasts that week [50, 137].
Elsewhere. The RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth hike of 2026, and said further increases are possible "if needed" [27, 28, 138]. The ICE dollar index rose 0.95% on the week to 101.93 [64, 65]. Spot gold fell about 3.5% on the week to around $4,140 an ounce [17, 139].
Key data table
| Indicator | Latest | Prior | Period | Release date | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro area HICP, y/y (flash) | 3.8% | 3.2% | Sep 2026 | 2 Oct 2026 | [18, 19, 108] |
| Euro area core HICP, y/y | 2.5% | 2.4% | Sep 2026 | 2 Oct 2026 | [18, 19] |
| Euro area energy HICP, y/y | 18.8% | 14.3% | Sep 2026 | 2 Oct 2026 | [18, 19] |
| Japan Tankan, large manufacturers | +24 | +22 | Sep 2026 survey | 1 Oct 2026 | [121, 122] |
| Tokyo core CPI, y/y | 2.7% | 1.8% | Sep 2026 | 1 Oct 2026 | [20, 21, 125] |
| Tokyo core-core CPI, y/y | 3.0% | 2.0% | Sep 2026 | 1 Oct 2026 | [20, 21, 32] |
| China NBS manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | 49.8 | Sep 2026 | 30 Sep 2026 | [22, 23, 24, 130] |
| China NBS non-manufacturing PMI | 50.2 | 49.0 | Sep 2026 | 30 Sep 2026 | [22, 23, 131, 132] |
| RBA cash rate target | 4.60% | 4.35% | Decision | 29 Sep 2026 | [27, 28, 138] |
| US 10-yr Treasury par yield | 5.28% | 5.24% (28 Sep) | Close | 2 Oct 2026 | [6, 7] |
| 10-yr JGB yield | 3.092% (MoF, 1 Oct); 3.10% (2 Oct) | 3.10% (1 Oct) | Close | 1–2 Oct 2026 | [58, 115] |
| UK 10-yr gilt yield (BoE fitted par) | 5.37% (30 Sep) | 5.38% (28 Sep) | Close | 30 Sep 2026 | [118] |
| German 10-yr Bund yield | 3.454% | n/a | Friday session | 2 Oct 2026 | [29, 117] |
| Brent crude, front month (Dec) | $102.25 | $102.31 (1 Oct) | Settlement | 2 Oct 2026 | [135, 136] |
Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to
Sunday 4 October: OPEC+ sets November output
Who decides: the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts [140, 141].
- Hold output (expected [142, 143]). Crude supply barely changes, diesel stays the binding constraint, and Brent stays close to $100. No relief for importers' inflation.
- Raise output. Brent eases, the inflation fear lifting long-term yields softens, and energy importers' currencies (rupee, won, yen, euro) get relief.
- Cut output. Brent jumps, yields and the dollar rise again, and emerging-market outflows deepen.
Most likely: a hold. It keeps prices high for producers without provoking consumers during a war.
Wednesday 7 October: India's central bank decides
Who decides: the RBI Monetary Policy Committee, meeting 5–7 October [36, 144].
- Raise the repo rate to 5.50% (expected by nearly 60% of economists in a Reuters poll [35, 36]). Supports the rupee and signals that emerging-market central banks will defend their currencies against 5% Treasuries, at a cost to growth.
- Hold at 5.25%. Puts the burden on reserves and the exchange rate; foreign selling could continue.
- Raise by more. A strong defence of the rupee, but a sign of alarm that could worry equity investors.
Most likely: a 25bp rise to 5.50%. That supports the rupee without changing the bigger picture: while Treasuries pay over 5%, emerging-market central banks have to defend their currencies at a cost to growth.
Wednesday 7 October: Minutes of the Fed's September meeting
What they decide: nothing, but they show how many officials wanted to keep raising rates before the weak jobs data [145, 146].
- Hawkish tone (many wanted more). The October hike comes back into play; front-end yields and the dollar rise.
- Balanced or dovish tone. Confirms the market's pause; the long end then depends on inflation data, not the Fed.
What it tells you: whether the Fed is still leading the tightening, or whether the bond market has taken over.
Thursday 8 October: The ECB's account of its September meeting
What it decides: nothing, but it shows how close the Governing Council is to another rise after inflation hit 3.8% [147, 148].
- Leaning to more hikes. Supports the euro and pushes up Bund yields; adds pressure on Europe's banks and indebted governments.
- Leaning to patience. The euro softens; markets trim the December hike they price [29].
What it tells you: whether Europe will lean against imported energy inflation or wait for it to fade.
Japan's wage and spending data (7 and 9 October): the BoJ's choice on 29–30 October
Who decides: the Bank of Japan, at its meeting with new forecasts [32, 126]. The data come first [147, 149].
- Firm wages and spending. Raises the odds of a hike before December; the yen strengthens and Japanese money has more reason to stay at home.
- Soft data. The yen weakens further, which helps exporters and chip stocks but imports more energy inflation.
Most likely: no move in October. Traders pared bets on an October hike, and analysts read the BoJ's summary of opinions as pointing to rises roughly every three months [31, 32].
What the data tell you: how fast Japan, the last major low-rate economy, keeps normalising.
The following week: China and US inflation (14 October), IMF forecasts (12–18 October)
- China CPI and PPI [150, 151] test whether rising input prices pass through. If they do, China starts exporting inflation instead of deflation.
- US CPI [152, 153] tests the Fed pause. A hot core reading would push long yields higher still.
- IMF World Economic Outlook [50, 137] puts numbers on the energy shock's cost by region. Larger downgrades for energy importers would confirm that the shock is now cutting growth as well as lifting prices.
Around 18 October: US tariffs on buyers of Russian crude
Who decides: the US President, under the Graham Act [48, 49].
- Impose duties of up to 100% on covered countries. Large buyers of Russian crude would have to choose between Russian discounts and access to the US market; replacement barrels are bought at market prices without that discount, so oil costs rise for importers.
- Waive under the national-interest clause. Relief for importers' trade and currencies, and a sign that the law is mainly leverage.
- Partial action. Targeted duties on some buyers, waivers for others.
Most likely: partial action, with the threat used as leverage. The White House has not said what rates or waivers it intends [154], and trade analysts expect Washington to use the threat to push buyers such as India to cut Russian purchases and offer trade concessions [155].
What it tells you: how far Washington will use market access to reshape energy trade.
Where this is heading
Base case: expensive money through the end of 2026. Diesel stays tight into the northern winter, central banks outside the US keep tightening, the Fed holds, and long-term yields stay near current highs. Capital keeps flowing to the US and to markets in the AI supply chain, and away from energy importers that depend on foreign money. Signposts: US 10-year above 5%, diesel near its record, continued foreign selling in India and Korea.
Upside: a deal that reopens Hormuz. Iran says it has received a US response to its latest proposal [156, 157], but the two sides disagree on sequencing [158, 159]. A deal would cut diesel and crude first, then inflation expectations and long-term yields, weaken the dollar and pull money back into emerging markets. Signposts: confirmed safe tanker traffic, Brent falling well below $100, the rupee recovering.
Downside: stagflation. Talks stall, more US forces arrive [160, 161], diesel spikes again in winter, and central banks keep tightening into slowing growth. Credit spreads, which widened this week in US high yield [162, 163], would be the early warning, followed by weaker currencies across energy importers.
The long run. This week fits a larger pattern: higher structural interest rates, energy treated as a security issue rather than a commodity, and trade and finance used as tools of national power. Investors and businesses will be paid for resilience, meaning access to energy, to technology and to stable funding, more than for cheapness.
Sources
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- 外資買超296億元終止連2賣 敲進面板雙虎 [Foreign investors net buy NT$29.6 billion, ending two days of selling, and snap up the two panel makers]. Central News Agency, 30 September 2026. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202609300218.aspx
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- 三大法人買超台股292.52億元 [The three major institutional investors net buy NT$29.252 billion of Taiwan stocks]. Central News Agency, 1 October 2026. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202610010200.aspx
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