The Weekly Insight

← All six issues this week

Global Macro & Markets Weekly

Week covered: Monday 28 September – Friday 2 October 2026 · Published Saturday 3 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

  1. The world's risk-free rate moved higher on bad news. US payrolls rose only 29,000 in September and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 [1, 2]. Markets cut the odds of another Fed hike on 28 October from 64–70% to roughly 14–22% [3, 4, 5]. The US 10-year Treasury yield still closed the week at 5.28%, after a 5.29% close on Wednesday that was the highest since 2002 [6, 7]. When the anchor rate for the whole world rises on weak growth news, investors are charging for inflation and supply risk, and a Fed pause does not remove that charge.
  2. Every risky asset is now competing with a 5% risk-free return, and capital is choosing. Foreign investors sold Korean shares for six straight sessions, about 9.9 trillion won, and sold a net ₹34,966 crore of Indian shares in the four sessions to 1 October [8, 9, 10, 11]. India's Nifty 50 fell 3.11% and Korea's KOSPI 1.09%. Japan's Nikkei rose 2.93% and Taiwan's TAIEX 0.94% on the AI chip trade [12, 13, 14, 15]. Gold futures fell 3.68%, because a metal that pays nothing is expensive to hold when Treasuries pay over 5% [16, 17].
  3. The energy shock is spreading into broad inflation, and importers carry the bill. Euro-area inflation jumped to 3.8% with services rising to 3.2% [18, 19]. Tokyo core-core inflation reached 3.0% [20, 21]. China's factory purchasing-price index jumped 4.2 points to 60.8 [22, 23, 24]. Diesel set a record of $5.365 a gallon in New York Harbor on 16 September [25, 26]. Europe, Japan, India and Korea import most of their energy, so they import this inflation too.
  4. Central banks are splitting, and the split is moving currencies. Australia raised rates to 4.60% [27, 28], markets price at least one more ECB hike by December [29, 30], the Fed may pause, the Bank of Japan is moving slowly [31, 32], China's central bank cut a lending rate [33, 34], and economists expect India's central bank to raise its repo rate to 5.50% on 7 October [35, 36]. On ECB reference rates the rupee is down 6.4% against the dollar since 2 January, while the won is up 7.2% and the yuan 4.3% [37].
  5. Governments are cushioning the shock with buffers that are running down. The G7 agreed a 100-million-barrel release front-loaded to diesel [38, 39], but the IEA has already released about 325 million of the 400 million barrels it pledged in March [40], and Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports for October [41, 42]. Each new disruption now meets a thinner cushion.
  6. The US–China contest has a truce on trade and competition everywhere else. Each side will cut tariffs on about $30 billion of the other's goods, and the suspension of China's rare-earth export controls and the US "Affiliates Rule" postponement both run to 10 January 2027 [43, 44, 45]. G20 ministers could not agree on industrial overcapacity [46, 47], and a new US law requires tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian crude or gas from around 18 October unless waived [48, 49].

Mind, matter, money

Three contests decide which economies gain ground: who leads in technology (mind), who controls energy, materials and food (matter), and whose currency, rates and markets the world's capital depends on (money). This week moved all three.

Mind: technology and the AI cycle

Matter: energy, metals and food

Money: the dollar, rates and capital

Where the players stand after this week

Player Mind Matter Money
United States Leads the AI investment cycle; tech truce with China holds to January [45] Pushed allies into a diesel release [69, 70, 71] 5%+ Treasuries pull capital in; sanctions and secondary tariffs [6, 48, 49, 66]
China Rare-earth controls held in reserve until 10 January 2027 [45] Fuel kept at home [41]; overcapacity dispute unresolved [46] Easing at home [33]; yuan +4.3% against the dollar this year [37]
Euro area No major move this week Energy importer; inflation 3.8% [18] ECB tightening, deposit rate 2.50% [72]
Japan Chip stocks led the Nikkei [51] Energy importer; Tokyo core-core inflation 3.0% [20] BoJ normalising slowly; 10-year JGB above 3% [31, 58]
India No major move this week Russian crude imports at the lowest since April [73, 74] Rupee −6.4% against the dollar this year; foreign outflows [10, 37]
Russia No major move this week Its large crude buyers face US tariffs of up to 100% [48, 49] Sanctions pressure rising [48, 49]
Gulf producers No major move this week Exports recovering, Hormuz still disrupted [40, 75] No major move this week

How the week connected across markets

  1. Oil and diesel → inflation. Refined-fuel prices are far above pre-war levels because refining capacity is short, as the IMF noted [50]. That pushed euro-area energy inflation to 18.8% [18, 19] and China's input prices up sharply [22, 23, 24].
  2. Inflation → central banks. The ECB, the BoJ and the RBA have all raised rates since 10 September, and markets price more ECB tightening [27, 29, 72, 76].
  3. Central banks and supply → long-term yields. Long yields rose even when growth news was weak, which points to term premium rather than rate expectations [1, 6].
  4. Yields → the dollar and capital flows. The ICE dollar index rose 0.95% on the week [64, 65], and foreign money left Korea and India [8, 10].
  5. Flows → currencies and equities. The rupee closed at 96.31 per dollar on 1 October [77, 78], Indian shares had an eighth straight weekly loss [10, 79], and gold fell even as war risk stayed high [16, 17].

Japan, Taiwan and the dollar rose; gold, India and copper fell most

Weekly change from the last close before 28 September to the last close of the week

Holidays changed the window for some markets: Korea from 23 Sep, Taiwan and mainland China from 24 Sep, India to 1 Oct and mainland China to 30 Sep. WTI is NYMEX November futures, copper the LME official three-month price, gold COMEX December futures.

Show the data
MarketWeekly changeFromToHoliday note
Nikkei 225 (Japan)+2.93%66,364.20 (25 Sep)68,309.46 (2 Oct)
US dollar index (ICE)+0.95%n/a101.93 (2 Oct)
TAIEX (Taiwan)+0.94%48,024.60 (24 Sep)48,475.74 (2 Oct)Taiwan shut 25 and 28 Sep
S&P 500 (US)−0.27%7,743.41 (25 Sep)7,722.72 (2 Oct)
KOSPI (Korea)−1.09%7,080.92 (23 Sep)7,003.74 (2 Oct)Korea shut 24 and 25 Sep
WTI crude, NYMEX November futures−1.41%$92.41 (25 Sep)$91.11 (2 Oct)
CSI 300 (mainland China)−1.84%4,439.14 (24 Sep)4,357.62 (30 Sep)Shut 25 Sep and from 1 Oct
FTSE 100 (UK)−2.18%n/a10,462 (2 Oct)
Copper, LME official three-month ($/t)−2.23%$14,647 (25 Sep)$14,320 (2 Oct)
Nifty 50 (India)−3.11%23,140.50 (25 Sep)22,421.95 (1 Oct)India shut 2 Oct
Gold, COMEX December futures (settlement)−3.68%$4,321.20 (25 Sep)$4,162.30 (2 Oct)

Sources for the chart: [12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 54, 55, 64, 65, 79, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95].

Asia this week: where the money went

Market Index, week Foreign investors this week Currency against the dollar, week (ECB)
Japan Nikkei 225 +2.93% [12, 13] n/a Yen 157.59 → 157.68, little changed [37]
Taiwan TAIEX +0.94%, record close [14, 15] Sold NT$63.2bn on 29 Sep, then bought NT$29.6bn, NT$21.9bn and NT$2.6bn: net about NT$9.0bn sold [96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103] n/a
Korea KOSPI −1.09% [86, 88, 89] Net sellers for six straight sessions, about 9.9 trillion won [8, 9] Won 1,355.05 → 1,348.28, +0.50% [37]
Mainland China CSI 300 −1.84% to 30 Sep; shut from 1 Oct for National Day [92, 93] n/a Yuan 6.7132 → 6.7046, +0.13% [37]
Hong Kong Hang Seng −2.6% on Friday alone, to 23,972 [104, 105] No mainland buying through Stock Connect on 2 Oct while the mainland was shut [105, 106] n/a
India Nifty 50 −3.11% to 1 Oct [79, 94, 95] FPIs sold a net ₹34,966 crore in four sessions; domestic institutions bought ₹33,455 crore [10, 11] Rupee 95.82 → 96.32, −0.53% [37]
United States S&P 500 −0.27% [84, 85] n/a Dollar index +0.95% [64, 65]

Three points stand out. Of the markets that publish daily foreign flows, Korea and India lost the most foreign money, in both cases while US yields were rising [63, 77, 107]. In Taiwan, foreign investors were net sellers over the week, about NT$9.0bn, even as the index hit a record, so local investors were the net buyers behind the rally. Hong Kong's Friday slide shows how much its market now depends on mainland money: with Stock Connect buying absent for the holiday, banks and insurers fell hardest [104, 105, 106].

What it means for you

The detail

1. Euro area: an energy-driven inflation jump puts more ECB hikes on the table

What happened. Eurostat's flash estimate puts euro-area annual inflation at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Prices rose 0.6% on the month [18, 108]. Energy did most of the work: energy inflation rose to 18.8% from 14.3%. Core inflation edged up to 2.5% from 2.4%, and services to 3.2% from 3.0% [18, 19]. By country, Lithuania (6.1%) and Bulgaria (5.6%) were highest, followed by Cyprus and Luxembourg (both 5.2%), and Malta (2.4%) was lowest [18, 108]. Italy accelerated to 4.1% from 3.2%, with France at 3.4% and Germany at 3.3% [18, 108]. The print beat a 3.6% consensus [19, 108].

Why. Energy contributed about 1.7 percentage points of the 3.8%, based on its 9.0% weight in the index [18, 108]. That fits the IMF's observation this week that refined-fuel prices are far above pre-conflict levels because refining capacity is limited [50].

What it means. The ECB raised all three policy rates by 25bp on 10 September (effective 16 September), taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. At that meeting staff projected 2026 headline inflation at 3.0% [72, 109]. The Governing Council said it is "not pre-committing to a particular rate path" [72, 109]. Reuters, citing LSEG data, put the probability of a December hike at 81.8% [29], and Trading Economics said money markets price the deposit rate at about 2.8% by December [110]. The STOXX 600 fell over the week despite gaining on Friday [29, 111]. Reuters reported that euro-area banks posted their biggest weekly fall since April [29].

Knock-on effects. A September print well above the 3.0% the ECB's staff projected for 2026 as a whole makes a pause harder to justify. Higher euro rates support the euro against currencies whose central banks are not tightening, and keep pressure on Europe's indebted governments and banks.

2. The global long end: Treasuries at 2002 highs, JGBs above 3%

What happened. Treasury's official par curve shows the US 10-year at 5.24% on 28 Sep, 5.29% on 30 Sep, 5.24% on 1 Oct and 5.28% on 2 Oct [6, 7]. The 30-year par yield finished at 5.63% [6]. The 10-year yield hit its highest since 2002 intraday on Thursday [17, 112]. Yields fell by as much as 8bp during Friday's session after the weak payrolls report [113, 114], but the 10-year still closed 4bp above Thursday.

Japan's Ministry of Finance data show the 10-year JGB at 3.092% on 1 Oct [58]; the market quote was about 3.1% on 2 Oct, near the highest since August 1996 [59, 115, 116]. The Bund 10-year ended Friday at 3.454%, down more than 6bp on the day [29, 117]. In the UK, the Bank of England's fitted 10-year par yield was 5.38% on Monday 28 Sep and 5.37% on 30 Sep [118]; on a market basis the 10-year gilt touched 5.51% on 1 Oct, its highest since July 2007 [56, 57], and ended the week below 5.4% [119, 120].

Why. The Bank of England left Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September, with three of nine members voting for a hike. It projects CPI near 3¾% in Q4 2026 and slightly above 4% in Q1 2027 [61, 62]. At the same meeting it approved a multi-year plan that includes £20bn of annual gilt sales [61, 62]. The FTSE 100 lost about 2.2% on the week to 10,462 [80, 83].

Knock-on effects. Higher JGB yields give Japanese savers a better return at home, which matters for every bond market that relies on Japanese buying. A UK gilt market selling at multi-decade highs while the central bank sells its holdings shows how quickly supply can add to yields. Both feed back into US yields through global portfolio choices.

3. Japan: firm Tankan, hot Tokyo CPI, and a BoJ in no hurry

What happened. The BoJ's September Tankan showed the large-manufacturer index rising to +24 from +22, while large non-manufacturers slipped to +35 from +37 [121, 122, 123]. Small manufacturers improved to +14 from +9 [121, 124]. All four headline groups expect conditions to be worse in December [121]. Tokyo core CPI rose 2.7% y/y against a 2.4% forecast, and core-core rose 3.0% [20, 21, 125]. That was the first time core has been above the BoJ's 2% target since December 2025 [20, 21]. Part of the jump came from water and childcare subsidies being phased out [20, 32], but food, daily necessities and chip-heavy electronics also rose [32]. Services inflation climbed to 2.3% from 1.4% [20, 32].

Why the yen still weakened. The BoJ raised its policy rate to 1.25% on 18 September by a 7–2 vote [21, 76]. The summary of opinions published on 1 October offered fewer hawkish signals than markets expected [126, 127], and analysts read it as implying hikes roughly "every three months" [31]. Traders pared bets on an October hike [31, 32], and USD/JPY was trading just above 158 late on 1 Oct [31, 128].

Markets. The Nikkei 225 rose 3.3% to 68,956.72 on Thursday 1 Oct, the highest close in more than six weeks, led by chip stocks after upbeat guidance from Micron [13, 51]. The Topix rose only 0.57% [51, 129]. The Nikkei closed Friday at 68,309.46 [13, 81].

Knock-on effects. A weak yen props up Japanese exporters and chip stocks but imports energy inflation. The 29–30 October meeting, with new forecasts, is where the BoJ either confirms or resists the market's slower path [32, 126].

4. China: PMIs back above 50, more targeted PBoC support

What happened. The NBS manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September from 49.8, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5 [22, 23, 24, 130]. Price gauges jumped: the purchasing price index rose 4.2pts to 60.8 and the ex-factory price index rose 3.6pts to 54.0 [22, 23, 24]. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 from 49.0, with construction up 3.4pts to 50.3 and services at 50.2 [22, 23, 131, 132]. Twelve of 21 manufacturing industries were in expansion, four more than in August [22, 23, 24].

Policy. On 29 September the PBoC cut the one-year Pledged Supplementary Lending rate to 1.5% from 1.75%, raised the sci-tech relending quota to 1.4tn yuan from 1.2tn and added 500bn yuan for agriculture, small and private firms [33, 34, 133]. From 1 October, eligible first-home buyers get an interest subsidy on new commercial mortgages of 1 percentage point a year for up to five years per loan, under a scheme with a tentative implementation period of one year [33, 34].

Knock-on effects. China is easing while most others tighten, and its factory prices are rising. If that continues, China stops exporting deflation to the rest of the world, which would remove one of the forces that kept global goods prices down. Mainland shares fell 1.84% on the CSI 300 in the three sessions before the National Day holiday [92, 93], so markets have not yet bought the recovery.

5. Energy policy and the multilateral view

What happened. G7 leaders agreed on Friday 2 October to a coordinated release of 100 million barrels of crude and diesel through the IEA, over four months [38, 39]. The IEA said that about 325 million barrels, over 80% of the 400 million barrels pledged in its collective action of 11 March, had been released [40]. Brent briefly fell below $100 after the announcement [39, 134] but settled at $102.25, little changed from Thursday's $102.31, and WTI settled at $91.11 [82, 135, 136]. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict with Iran continues [39, 40].

The IMF's view. At its 1 October briefing the IMF described a global economy shaped by "a negative energy shock and a positive impulse from AI investment", and said disinflation has stalled in some countries [50]. The Annual Meetings run 12–18 October in Bangkok, with new World Economic Outlook forecasts that week [50, 137].

Elsewhere. The RBA raised its cash rate by 25bp to 4.60% on 29 September, its fourth hike of 2026, and said further increases are possible "if needed" [27, 28, 138]. The ICE dollar index rose 0.95% on the week to 101.93 [64, 65]. Spot gold fell about 3.5% on the week to around $4,140 an ounce [17, 139].

Key data table

Indicator Latest Prior Period Release date Source
Euro area HICP, y/y (flash) 3.8% 3.2% Sep 2026 2 Oct 2026 [18, 19, 108]
Euro area core HICP, y/y 2.5% 2.4% Sep 2026 2 Oct 2026 [18, 19]
Euro area energy HICP, y/y 18.8% 14.3% Sep 2026 2 Oct 2026 [18, 19]
Japan Tankan, large manufacturers +24 +22 Sep 2026 survey 1 Oct 2026 [121, 122]
Tokyo core CPI, y/y 2.7% 1.8% Sep 2026 1 Oct 2026 [20, 21, 125]
Tokyo core-core CPI, y/y 3.0% 2.0% Sep 2026 1 Oct 2026 [20, 21, 32]
China NBS manufacturing PMI 50.1 49.8 Sep 2026 30 Sep 2026 [22, 23, 24, 130]
China NBS non-manufacturing PMI 50.2 49.0 Sep 2026 30 Sep 2026 [22, 23, 131, 132]
RBA cash rate target 4.60% 4.35% Decision 29 Sep 2026 [27, 28, 138]
US 10-yr Treasury par yield 5.28% 5.24% (28 Sep) Close 2 Oct 2026 [6, 7]
10-yr JGB yield 3.092% (MoF, 1 Oct); 3.10% (2 Oct) 3.10% (1 Oct) Close 1–2 Oct 2026 [58, 115]
UK 10-yr gilt yield (BoE fitted par) 5.37% (30 Sep) 5.38% (28 Sep) Close 30 Sep 2026 [118]
German 10-yr Bund yield 3.454% n/a Friday session 2 Oct 2026 [29, 117]
Brent crude, front month (Dec) $102.25 $102.31 (1 Oct) Settlement 2 Oct 2026 [135, 136]

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Sunday 4 October: OPEC+ sets November output

Who decides: the seven OPEC+ countries with voluntary cuts [140, 141].

Most likely: a hold. It keeps prices high for producers without provoking consumers during a war.

Wednesday 7 October: India's central bank decides

Who decides: the RBI Monetary Policy Committee, meeting 5–7 October [36, 144].

Most likely: a 25bp rise to 5.50%. That supports the rupee without changing the bigger picture: while Treasuries pay over 5%, emerging-market central banks have to defend their currencies at a cost to growth.

Wednesday 7 October: Minutes of the Fed's September meeting

What they decide: nothing, but they show how many officials wanted to keep raising rates before the weak jobs data [145, 146].

What it tells you: whether the Fed is still leading the tightening, or whether the bond market has taken over.

Thursday 8 October: The ECB's account of its September meeting

What it decides: nothing, but it shows how close the Governing Council is to another rise after inflation hit 3.8% [147, 148].

What it tells you: whether Europe will lean against imported energy inflation or wait for it to fade.

Japan's wage and spending data (7 and 9 October): the BoJ's choice on 29–30 October

Who decides: the Bank of Japan, at its meeting with new forecasts [32, 126]. The data come first [147, 149].

Most likely: no move in October. Traders pared bets on an October hike, and analysts read the BoJ's summary of opinions as pointing to rises roughly every three months [31, 32].

What the data tell you: how fast Japan, the last major low-rate economy, keeps normalising.

The following week: China and US inflation (14 October), IMF forecasts (12–18 October)

Around 18 October: US tariffs on buyers of Russian crude

Who decides: the US President, under the Graham Act [48, 49].

Most likely: partial action, with the threat used as leverage. The White House has not said what rates or waivers it intends [154], and trade analysts expect Washington to use the threat to push buyers such as India to cut Russian purchases and offer trade concessions [155].

What it tells you: how far Washington will use market access to reshape energy trade.

Where this is heading

Base case: expensive money through the end of 2026. Diesel stays tight into the northern winter, central banks outside the US keep tightening, the Fed holds, and long-term yields stay near current highs. Capital keeps flowing to the US and to markets in the AI supply chain, and away from energy importers that depend on foreign money. Signposts: US 10-year above 5%, diesel near its record, continued foreign selling in India and Korea.

Upside: a deal that reopens Hormuz. Iran says it has received a US response to its latest proposal [156, 157], but the two sides disagree on sequencing [158, 159]. A deal would cut diesel and crude first, then inflation expectations and long-term yields, weaken the dollar and pull money back into emerging markets. Signposts: confirmed safe tanker traffic, Brent falling well below $100, the rupee recovering.

Downside: stagflation. Talks stall, more US forces arrive [160, 161], diesel spikes again in winter, and central banks keep tightening into slowing growth. Credit spreads, which widened this week in US high yield [162, 163], would be the early warning, followed by weaker currencies across energy importers.

The long run. This week fits a larger pattern: higher structural interest rates, energy treated as a security issue rather than a commodity, and trade and finance used as tools of national power. Investors and businesses will be paid for resilience, meaning access to energy, to technology and to stable funding, more than for cheapness.

Sources

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  157. Iran Says Received US Response to Its Proposal to End War. Asharq Al-Awsat, 30 September 2026. https://english.aawsat.com/world/5324226-iran-says-received-us-response-its-proposal-end-war
  158. Iran Update, September 30, 2026. Critical Threats Project, 30 September 2026. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-30-2026
  159. Iran proposes deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in 7 days if US meets conditions. Gulf News, 26 September 2026. https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/iran-proposes-deal-to-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-in-7-days-if-us-meets-conditions-1.500688397
  160. Pentagon adds aircraft carrier, 10,000 troops to Persian Gulf deployment, US official says. ThePrint, 2 October 2026. https://theprint.in/world/pentagon-adds-aircraft-carrier-10000-troops-to-persian-gulf-deployment-us-official-says/3059810/
  161. Trump says Iran "ready to fold up". Yahoo News, 2 October 2026. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/irans-military-says-war-only-080438739.html
  162. ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2
  163. Junk Bonds Cross Into Distressed Territory: High-Yield Funds Now Hold Bankruptcy Bets. Tech Times, 1 October 2026. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328402/20261001/junk-bonds-cross-distressed-territory-high-yield-funds-now-hold-bankruptcy-bets.htm

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