← All six issues this week

Money Markets & Liquidity Weekly

Week covered: Monday 5 October – Friday 9 October 2026 · Published Saturday 10 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

1. Short-term dollar yields rose as the Fed signalled another hike, and cash pays close to its best level of the year. The 3-month Treasury bill closed at 4.25% on Friday 9 October, up from 4.19% a week earlier and from 3.65% on 2 January, and just below the 2026 high of 4.28% on 28 September ^[1]. That is 37 basis points above the effective federal funds rate of 3.88% (8 October) inside a 3.75–4.00% target range ^{[1, 2, 3]}. The Fed raised rates by a 12–0 vote in September, and the minutes of that meeting, released on Wednesday, said most officials judged that another increase in the target range would likely be appropriate by year end ^{[4, 5, 6]}. Savers in dollars are paid more each week, and anyone who borrows at floating rates tied to SOFR or bills faces a higher bill within months.

2. The US funding system is running on reserves alone: the Fed's overnight reverse repo cushion is empty. Take-up at the overnight reverse repo facility was $0.3 billion on Friday, against an offering rate of 3.75% ^{[3, 7]}. Bank reserves averaged $3.03 trillion in the week to 7 October, up $81.6 billion, as the Treasury's cash account fell $68.4 billion to an average of $880.3 billion ^[8]. SOFR held at 3.87% on volume of $2.96 trillion on 8 October, 3 basis points below interest on reserves of 3.90% ^{[3, 9]}. With no idle cash left at the Fed, any rebuild of the Treasury's account or a heavier bill calendar comes straight out of bank reserves, so repo rates can jump faster than in past years.

3. Treasury supply is clearing at high yields, and the demand that turned up was overwhelmingly from end investors. The Treasury sold $39 billion of reopened 10-year notes at 5.300% on Wednesday and $22 billion of 30-year bonds at 5.618% on Thursday ^{[10, 11]}. Primary dealers were left with $984 million of the 10-year's $38.7 billion competitive award, and indirect bidders took $31.1 billion ^[10]. The 10-year closed the week at 5.24%, after its 2026 high of 5.31% on Monday ^[1]. A 10-year at 5.24% is the hurdle every other asset now has to beat, and it keeps mortgage, corporate and emerging-market borrowing costs high.

4. India tightened on every front at once to defend the rupee, and the hedging market shows why. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate 25 basis points to 5.50% on Wednesday and moved its stance to calibrated tightening ^[12]. On Saturday it ordered banks to hold a cash reserve equal to 20% of the notional of importers' rupee hedges above $2 million, cut the no-documents hedging limit from $100 million to $5 million, and opened a window to sell dollars directly to the three state oil companies from Monday ^{[13, 14]}. Foreign exchange reserves fell $12.95 billion to $734.6 billion in the week to 2 October, and the rupee closed at about 96.7 per dollar on Friday ^{[15, 16, 17]}. Rupee rates are rising, and the cost of buying dollars three months forward was 4.31% a year on 1 October, the latest published, which raises import costs and business borrowing costs in India ^[18].

5. Most major central banks have tightened or are holding high rates into an energy shock while China stays low, so gaps in short rates now drive currencies. The ECB deposit rate is 2.50% after September's increase, the Bank of Japan's target is around 1.25% after its September move, and the Bank of England holds at 3.75% with inflation at 3.1% ^{[19, 20, 21]}. China's 7-day reverse repo rate was 1.40% on 9 October ^[22]. Europe Brent spot traded at $125.44 a barrel on 6 October ^[23]. The widest rate gaps, dollar against yen and yuan, keep those currencies weak or tightly managed and keep hedging costs high for investors in Japan and China.

6. Next week tests whether inflation justifies the further hike Fed officials signalled. US consumer prices for September come out on Wednesday 14 October, India's CPI on Monday 12 October, and the RBI sells ₹25,000 crore of government bonds on Tuesday 13 October ^{[24, 25, 26]}. A hot US reading would lock in a Fed move on 28 October and push bill yields higher; a soft one would pull them back toward the 3.88% funds rate ^{[2, 27]}.

Mind, matter, money: the plumbing of power

The contest between the United States and China runs through the pipes of the money market: who can raise dollars cheaply, whose payment rails carry them and which energy shocks force importers to buy them. This week the US borrowed easily at high rates and penalised technology money flowing to China, Europe moved to fence off its crypto payment rails, and India raised rates, then on Saturday imposed hedging controls and a dollar window for its oil importers after reserves fell in the week to 2 October.

Mind: who controls the rails money moves on

• Europe's markets regulator, ESMA, said on 8 October that authorised crypto firms should stop providing services in stablecoins that do not comply with the EU's MiCA rules, and asked national supervisors to require existing exposures to be cleared within three months ^[28]. Stablecoins issued outside the EU regime lose their main route to European users, and euro-regulated tokens gain room.
• The US Treasury announced on 7 October a $200,000 penalty, issued in July, under its outbound investment program for an undisclosed investment into a Chinese embodied artificial intelligence company ^[29]. US outbound investment rules are now enforced with penalties, which narrows China's access to US money for AI.
• The Fed's September minutes noted market commentary pointing to competition for capital from heavy private debt issuance to finance AI infrastructure as one reason for higher term premiums and Treasury yields ^[6]. The AI build-out now competes directly with government borrowing for the same pool of savings.

Gained ground: the European Union, which asserted control over which digital dollars reach its users; the United States, which tightened the perimeter around technology investment in China. Lost ground: issuers of stablecoins not authorised in the EU, and Chinese AI start-ups that rely on foreign venture money.

Matter: energy and the importers' scramble for dollars

• Europe Brent spot was $125.44 a barrel on 6 October, down from $135.51 on 2 October ^[23]. US consumer energy prices were 16.3% higher in the year to August, with gasoline up 27.4% ^[30].
• The US Treasury said on 8 October that new sanctions had neutralised the vast majority of Iran's remaining shadow fleet, alongside a US military blockade ^[31].
• India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $58.7 billion in July–August, driven by electronics and crude oil imports, and the RBI opened a dedicated dollar window for the three state oil marketing companies from 12 October ^{[14, 32]}. Oil importers' dollar buying moves from the open market to the central bank, which takes direct pressure off the rupee at the cost of reserves.

Gained ground: the United States, whose real energy exports reached record highs in the second quarter, as Fed staff noted in the minutes ^[6]. Lost ground: Iran, whose oil exports are being choked, and oil importers such as India, which must find more dollars for every barrel.

Money: who can fund itself cheaply

• The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% in September, with interest on reserves at 3.90% and the standing repo rate at 4.0%, and the Treasury's 3-month bill now yields 4.25% ^{[1, 3]}.
• The US Treasury named Judy Shelton on 9 October as a counsellor to advise on currency policy, with a particular focus on financial conditions in China ^[33]. Currency policy toward China is becoming a named priority inside the Treasury.
• India's reserves fell $12.95 billion in the week to 2 October, foreign portfolio investors pulled a net $10.3 billion from India between April and 5 October, and the RBI raised rates and imposed hedging curbs ^{[13, 15, 32]}.
• China's central bank injected just RMB 2 billion through 7-day reverse repos at 1.40% on 9 October, and the yuan, crossed from ECB reference rates, was 6.6921 per dollar on Friday against 6.7046 a week earlier ^{[22, 34]}.

Gained ground: the US Treasury, which sold long debt at high yields to strong end-investor demand; China, whose currency held steady even though its 1.40% policy rate sits more than 2 points below the Fed's 3.75% floor ^{[3, 22]}. Lost ground: India, which spent reserves and resorted to controls; Japan, whose yen weakened to 158.25 per dollar on the ECB cross ^[35].

Where the players stand, seen from the money markets

How the week connected

1. Fed minutes → US bill yields → floating-rate borrowers. The minutes on Wednesday said most officials expected another hike by year end, and the 3-month bill ended the week at 4.25%, up 6 basis points ^{[1, 5, 6]}.
2. Iran sanctions and oil → India's import bill → the rupee. Brent spot was above $125 a barrel on 5 and 6 October, Treasury sanctions targeted Iran's shadow fleet on 8 October, and India's July–August trade deficit, swollen by crude and electronics, drains dollars ^{[23, 31, 32]}.
3. Rupee pressure → RBI reserves → controls. Reserves fell $12.95 billion in the week to 2 October, and the RBI followed with a rate increase, a 20% cash reserve on large importer hedges and a direct dollar window for oil companies ^{[12, 13, 14, 15]}.
4. Surplus rupee liquidity → RBI absorption → higher overnight rates. The RBI drained a net ₹3.88 lakh crore on 8 October through reverse repos and its deposit facility, with the call rate at 5.30% ^[40].
5. Treasury cash → bank reserves → repo rates. The Treasury's cash balance fell from $984.0 billion on 30 September to $887.5 billion on 8 October, adding reserves and keeping SOFR below interest on reserves ^{[8, 9, 41]}.
6. Rate gaps → the yen and yuan. With the Fed's floor at 3.75% against around 1.25% in Japan and 1.40% in China, the yen weakened to 158.25 per dollar while the yuan was held near 6.69 ^{[3, 20, 22, 34, 35]}.

Sources for the chart: ^{[1, 42, 43, 44]}.

What short-term money earns, and what hedging costs

The hurdle for every line in this table is the US 10-year Treasury at 5.24% on 9 October, with the 3-month bill at 4.25% ^[1]. A dollar investor gives up nothing by staying short: the bill pays 4.25%, while a hedged rupee bill pays about 1.3%, because the 3-month forward premium of 4.31% (1 October, the latest published) eats most of India's higher yield ^{[1, 18, 45]}. The same arithmetic in reverse shows how dear forward dollars are: an Indian buyer of 3-month Treasury bills who hedges back into rupees would earn about 8.6%, far above the 5.57% on a rupee bill ^{[1, 18, 45]}. Saturday's 20% cash reserve applies to the buying side of that market, hedges above $2 million in which the user buys foreign currency against the rupee, which raises the cost of those hedges ^[13]. In Europe and Japan the cost of hedging is the gap between overnight rates, so a 1.4-point gap with the euro and a 2.6-point gap with the yen keep hedged Treasury returns modest for those investors and encourage unhedged buying, which supports the dollar ^{[9, 20, 37]}. For capital, the order of preference is clear: dollar cash first, sterling close behind, then euro, and hedged rupee and yen positions last.

What it means for you

• If you borrow. Loans priced off SOFR (3.87% on 8 October) or bills (4.25% on 9 October) carry higher costs than a month ago, when the 3-month bill yielded 3.95% (9 September), and the Fed's minutes point to another increase by year end ^{[1, 6, 9]}. In India the repo rate is now 5.50%, and 364-day bills cleared at 6.2869% ^{[12, 45]}.
• If you hold cash. Dollar cash earns 4.25% in 3-month bills, rupee cash 5.57% in 91-day bills, euro cash about 2.44% overnight, and sterling about 3.73% ^{[1, 37, 39, 45]}. Longer bills pay more: the 1-year Treasury closed at 4.47% ^[1].
• If you invest. The US 10-year at 5.24% and the 30-year auction at 5.618% set a high bar for equities and credit, and the curve between 3-month bills and the 10-year is about 1 point steep ^{[1, 11]}.
• If you run a business. Under the RBI's Saturday measures, banks in India must hold a 20% cash reserve against hedges above $2 million in which the user buys foreign currency against the rupee, hedging without documents is capped at $5 million, and cancelled contracts cannot be rebooked ^[13]. Working capital in dollars costs more as bill rates rise ^[1].
• If you pay for fuel and food. Brent spot stood at $125.44 on 6 October, US gasoline prices were 27.4% higher in the year to August, and India's CPI inflation was 4.8% in August ^{[12, 23, 30]}.
• If you deal in more than one currency. The rupee closed at about 96.7 per dollar, with the ECB reference rate, crossed, at 96.73, while the euro stood at 1.1206 dollars on the ECB reference rate, and the yen at 158.25 per dollar on the ECB cross on 9 October ^{[16, 17, 35, 46, 47]}. Forward cover for the rupee cost 4.31% a year over three months on 1 October ^[18].

The detail

1. The Fed's September minutes made a second hike the base case

What happened. The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its 15–16 September meeting on Wednesday 7 October ^[5]. All participants supported raising the target range to 3.75–4.00%, and most judged that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end ^[6].

Why. Staff estimated that headline PCE inflation rose to 3.8% in August with core at 3.4%, and participants judged inflation risks skewed to the upside, citing energy prices and AI-related investment ^[6]. Several participants said they viewed the policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive ^[6].

Knock-on effects. The 3-month bill rose from 4.19% to 4.25% over the week and the 6-month from 4.27% to 4.32%, while the 2-year eased from 4.83% to 4.80% ^[1]. Bills are absorbing the expected hike; longer maturities are absorbing the view that it will cool inflation. The next decision is on 28 October ^[27].

2. The overnight reverse repo buffer is gone, so reserves carry all the strain

What happened. Overnight reverse repo take-up was $0.3 billion on 9 October and $2.3 billion on 7 October, against $11.5 billion on 30 September ^[7]. Reserves averaged $3.03 trillion in the week to 7 October ^[8].

Why. The Fed's minutes noted that a large rise in bill issuance since July had been absorbed with little effect on money market rates, and that the Desk had paused its reserve management purchases ^[6]. The Fed's holdings of bills stood at $560.8 billion, $365.3 billion higher than a year earlier ^[8].

Knock-on effects. SOFR at 3.87% and the tri-party rate at 3.85% sit just below interest on reserves at 3.90%, and the standing repo facility at 4.0% was barely used, with $1.2 billion at the 30 September quarter end and $3 million on 8 October ^{[3, 9, 48, 49]}. With the reverse repo facility empty, the next rise in the Treasury's cash balance will drain reserves directly, and the standing repo rate becomes the practical ceiling.

3. Treasury auctions cleared near 5.3% for 10 years with dealers barely involved

What happened. The 3-year note sold at 4.932% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.62, the 10-year reopening at 5.300% with 2.77, and the 30-year reopening at 5.618% with 2.54 ^{[10, 11, 50]}. The 13-week bill sold at a 4.050% discount rate (4.149% investment yield) and the 26-week at 4.165% (4.314%) ^{[51, 52]}.

Why. The Fed's minutes said part of the rise in yields reflected a higher expected policy path and strong data, and noted market commentary pointing to geopolitical developments, uncertainty about the Treasury's buyback program and AI-related borrowing as adding to term premiums ^[6]. High yields drew end investors: dealers took $984 million of the 10-year's competitive award and $1.49 billion of the 30-year's ^{[10, 11]}.

Knock-on effects. Strong demand at 5.3% shows that the market can finance the deficit, but at a price that resets borrowing costs worldwide. The 10-year closed at 5.24% on Friday, down from 5.28% a week earlier ^[1].

4. India raised rates, drained cash and imposed hedging controls in four days

What happened. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously on 7 October to raise the repo rate to 5.50%, with the standing deposit facility at 5.25% and the marginal standing facility at 5.75% ^[12]. On 9 October banks placed ₹1,39,847 crore in a 3-day reverse repo at 5.49%, but only ₹18,170 crore of the ₹1,50,000 crore offered in a 10-day operation ^{[53, 54]}. The RBI announced a ₹25,000 crore bond sale for 13 October ^[26]. On Saturday 10 October, after the week closed, it imposed new hedging rules and a dollar window for oil companies ^{[13, 14]}.

Why. CPI inflation rose to 4.8% in August, and the RBI projects 6.0% for October–December ^[12]. Liquidity had swelled to an average daily surplus of ₹5.9 lakh crore since August after measures to attract capital, and the Governor said the RBI would aim to align the call rate with the repo rate ^[32]. Foreign portfolio investors withdrew a net $10.3 billion from April to 5 October ^[32].

Knock-on effects. The call rate reached 5.30% and tri-party repo 5.26% on 8 October, still below the new 5.50% repo rate, so further absorption is likely: the RBI has scheduled a ₹2,00,000 crore 3-day reverse repo for 12 October ^{[40, 55]}. Weekly reserves data showed foreign currency assets down $10.66 billion and gold down $2.29 billion in the week to 2 October ^[15].

5. Europe and Japan tighten, Britain holds and China stays put

What happened. The ECB's deposit rate has been 2.50% since 16 September, and €STR traded at 2.439% on 8 October ^{[19, 37]}. The Bank of Japan raised its overnight call rate target to around 1.25% from 24 September on a 7–2 vote ^[20]. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% and said higher energy prices could push inflation up further ^[21]. China's 7-day reverse repo rate was 1.40% on 9 October ^[22].

Why. The RBI said the renewed escalation of the West Asia conflict had driven sharp swings in crude prices and that faster inflation in key economies had prompted a shift toward hawkish policy ^[12]. China's one-year loan prime rate remains 3.0% ^[36].

Knock-on effects. The euro slipped from 1.1225 to 1.1206 dollars on the ECB reference rate over the week, and the yen weakened from 157.67 to 158.25 per dollar on the ECB cross ^{[35, 47]}. Euro area banks parked €1,959.7 billion at the ECB deposit facility in the week to 2 October, so the deposit rate sets euro money market rates directly ^[38].

Key data table

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Monday 12 October: US bond market and Fed closed, India's CPI and new FX rules

What it tells you: US Columbus Day is a Federal Reserve holiday, and SIFMA recommends a full close of dollar fixed income trading in the US, the UK and Japan ^{[56, 57]}. India's CPI for September is due the same day, and the RBI's dollar window for oil companies starts ^{[14, 25]}. A reading above August's 4.8% would support further RBI tightening and higher rupee bill yields; a lower one would ease pressure on the December decision ^[12].

Tuesday 13 October: the RBI sells bonds and the Treasury sells bills

Who decides: the Reserve Bank of India, which sets how much of the ₹25,000 crore offering of 2030–2034 government bonds to sell ^[26].

• Sell the full amount. Drains about ₹25,000 crore of rupee liquidity, pushes the call rate toward the 5.50% repo rate and lifts medium-term bond yields.
• Sell less, or reject expensive bids. Signals that the RBI does not want bond yields to rise too fast, leaving the job to reverse repos.

Most likely: the RBI sells most of the amount, since it has said it will align the call rate with the repo rate and liquidity remains in surplus ^{[32, 40]}. That keeps Indian overnight rates rising toward 5.50% and narrows the gap that hedged investors can capture, supporting the rupee at the cost of higher borrowing costs.

The Treasury auctions $95 billion of 6-week bills, $95 billion of 13-week bills and $82 billion of 26-week bills the same day ^[58].

Wednesday 14 October: US consumer prices for September

What it tells you: the September CPI shows whether August's 0.4% headline pace and 16.3% annual energy rise are feeding into core prices ^{[24, 30]}. A hot reading would make a 28 October hike more likely and push 3-month bills above 4.25%; a soft one would let bills drift toward the 3.88% funds rate ^{[1, 2]}.

Thursday 15 October: US producer prices and the regular bill auctions

What it tells you: producer prices for September are released, and 4-week and 8-week bills are auctioned ^{[24, 58]}. A high reading would confirm cost pressure in the pipeline and support higher bill rates; a low one would ease it.

The following weeks: data and supply that shape the outlook

• Monday 12 October to Sunday 18 October: the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok ^[59]. A gloomier outlook on energy and debt would support demand for short Treasuries.
• Wednesday 21 October: the RBI publishes the minutes of its October meeting ^[12]. Hawkish minutes would lift rupee bill yields.
• Wednesday 21 October: the Treasury auctions a 20-year bond reopening, and a 5-year note follows on 22 October ^[58]. Weak demand would push the 10-year back above its 5.31% high of 5 October ^[1].

Wednesday 28 October: the Fed decides

Who decides: the Federal Open Market Committee, at its 27–28 October meeting ^[27].

• Raise the range to 4.00–4.25%. Interest on reserves and SOFR rise about 25 basis points; bills reprice at once; the dollar gains against low-rate currencies.
• Hold at 3.75–4.00%. Bills fall back toward the funds rate; the curve steepens if markets read it as tolerance of inflation.

Most likely: a hike either in October or at the December meeting, since most officials expected another increase by year end and a 3-month bill at 4.25% already sits well above the funds rate ^{[1, 2, 6]}. A move in October would lift the hurdle for every other cash market and widen hedging costs for yen and euro investors.

Thursday 29 October: the ECB decides

Who decides: the ECB Governing Council, meeting on 28–29 October ^[60].

• Raise the deposit rate to 2.75%. Narrows the gap with dollar rates, lowers the cost of hedging and supports the euro.
• Hold at 2.50%. Leaves euro cash 1.4 points behind dollar overnight money and keeps the euro under pressure if the Fed moves ^{[9, 37]}.

Most likely: a hold, with the option to move in December, after increases in June and September took the deposit rate to 2.50% ^[19]. A hold alongside a Fed hike would widen the rate gap and push the euro lower.

Friday 30 October: the Bank of Japan decides

Who decides: the Bank of Japan Policy Board, meeting on 29–30 October ^[61].

• Raise the target above 1.25%. Narrows the gap with the dollar and eases pressure on the yen.
• Hold around 1.25%. Keeps the gap with the dollar wide and the yen near 158 per dollar ^[35].

Most likely: a hold after the September increase, which passed on a split 7–2 vote ^[20]. That keeps yen hedging costs high and leaves currency support to intervention, as in late July ^[6].

Where this is heading

Base case: higher for longer in dollars, with a second Fed hike by December. The minutes, bill yields at 4.25% and inflation near 3.8% on the PCE measure point to one more increase ^{[1, 6]}. Signposts: September CPI on 14 October, any rise in SOFR above 3.90%, and auction demand at the 20-year reopening ^{[9, 24, 58]}.

Upside: an energy truce lets inflation cool and the Fed stops at 3.75–4.00%. Brent spot already fell from $135.51 on 2 October to $125.44 on 6 October ^[23]. Signposts: a soft CPI print, bills falling toward 4.00%, and a stronger rupee that lets the RBI ease its hedging controls.

Downside: funding strain from an empty buffer. With reverse repo take-up near zero, a Treasury cash rebuild or a hot CPI could push SOFR above interest on reserves and send banks to the 4.0% standing repo facility ^{[3, 7]}. Signposts: standing repo use outside quarter end, reserves falling below $3 trillion, and further falls in India's reserves ^{[8, 15, 49]}.

The long run. The money pillar is tilting toward whoever can pay savers the most and still sell debt: this week that was the US Treasury, which placed long bonds above 5.6% with dealers barely involved ^[11]. Importers of energy and savers in low-rate currencies pay for it, through costlier dollars, controls and weaker currencies, while China keeps a managed yuan and Europe builds walls around its payment rails. The plumbing of power favours the issuer of the world's funding currency, as long as its auctions keep clearing.

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