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Commodities Weekly

Week covered: Monday 5 October – Friday 9 October 2026 · Published Saturday 10 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

1. The oil shock is now a shortage of physical barrels and diesel, not a futures-market scare. Brent spot traded at $125.44 a barrel on Tuesday 6 October, while December Brent futures settled at $100.58 that day, a gap of about $25 ^{[1, 2, 3]}. New York Harbor diesel spot was $4.713 a gallon on 6 October, against $2.686 on 27 February, the day before the war with Iran began ^{[4, 5, 6]}. Fuel bills and freight costs track the physical price, so they stay high even on days when futures dip.

2. The world's emergency buffer is being spent faster than it can be rebuilt. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 283.0 million barrels in the week to 2 October, against 407.0 million a year earlier ^[7]. IEA members have released roughly 325 million barrels since March, still hold about 1.1 billion, and agreed on 7 October to speed up about 100 million more with diesel first ^{[8, 9]}. A thinner cushion means a new Gulf disruption would hit prices harder than the same disruption did in March.

3. Money got more expensive to hold, and speculators sold before the late-week rally. The US 10-year Treasury par yield closed at 5.31% on Monday, its highest close of the year, and ended Friday at 5.24% ^{[10, 11]}. Fed minutes released on 7 October showed most officials see another rate increase by year-end as likely appropriate, after September's hike to 3.75–4.00% ^[12]. Managed money cut long positions in WTI by 30,675 contracts, in COMEX copper by 15,258 and in corn by 46,594 in the week to 6 October ^{[13, 14, 15]}. A 5% risk-free return caps any rally that a physical shortage does not back.

4. Supply shocks stacked up from Hormuz to the Gulf of Mexico, and diplomacy only partly offset them. Attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly count since the war began, and crude flows through it ran more than a quarter below the pre-war level ^{[5, 6, 16]}. Hurricane Isaias shut in 62.9% of US Gulf offshore oil output, about 1.28 million barrels a day, by Thursday ^{[17, 18]}. December Brent ended the week at $104.72, up from $102.25, held back as Iran reviewed a US response to a proposal that could reopen the strait within seven days ^{[2, 19, 20, 21, 22]}. Prices now swing on headlines from two directions, which keeps hedging costs for fuel buyers high.

5. Food is splitting in two: grain is plentiful, vegetable oils and wheat trade are tight. USDA raised the US corn crop by 234 million bushels to 16.0 billion, and December corn fell about 4% on Friday to about 480 cents ^{[23, 24, 25]}. The same report cut Indonesia's palm oil output by 2.2 million tons and put global palm oil stocks at their lowest since 2017/18 ^[23]. Feed costs ease while cooking oil and biofuel feedstock stay dear.

6. Next week decides how much more oil governments put on the market. The IEA Governing Board meets next week to review the stock releases ^{[9, 26]}. US consumer prices for September come out on Wednesday 14 October ^[27]. A larger diesel release plus a firm answer from Tehran would pull the spot premium down; failure on both would push it higher.

Mind, matter, money: what it costs to hold the materials of power

The US–China contest runs through commodities on all three pillars: the metals and power behind computing, control of oil, diesel and grain, and the rates and dollar that set the cost of holding any of them. This week the United States held the money pillar, China kept buying metal and gold, and the Gulf, Russia and Europe adjusted around both.

Mind: copper, rare earths and the power bill of computing

• A strike began at Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine in Chile on 7 October, and supervisors at BHP's Escondida voted to authorise one ^{[28, 29, 30]}. Managed money had cut long positions in COMEX copper by 15,258 contracts in the week to 6 October ^[14].
• China's 12-month pause of its expanded rare earth export controls ends on 10 November 2026; licensing for seven medium and heavy rare earths stays in force ^{[31, 32, 33]}.
• The EIA expects wholesale power prices in the PJM region to rise 41% in 2026 ^[34]. Several Fed officials linked elevated core goods prices to the artificial intelligence buildout ^[12].

Gained ground: China, whose rare earth leverage runs on a dated clock ^{[31, 33]}. Lost ground: manufacturers and power users outside China, facing dearer electricity and a strike-hit copper supply ^{[29, 34]}.

Matter: who controls oil, diesel and grain

• Seven OPEC+ countries (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman) agreed on 4 October to hold November output at September's required level ^[35]. Their combined required output is 31.01 million barrels a day ^[35].
• The UAE left OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026 and now sets its own volumes ^{[36, 37]}.
• China halted October fuel exports outside Hong Kong and Macau around its Golden Week holiday ^{[38, 39]}.
• Russia's wheat exports are forecast at 40.0 million tons, the lowest in five years, as the Black Sea conflict disrupts shipments ^[23].

Gained ground: the seven OPEC+ producers, which held November output where it was ^[35], and China, which can switch fuel exports on and off ^{[38, 39]}. Lost ground: Europe, which depends on imported diesel and has not delivered all the releases Washington wants ^{[40, 41]}.

Money: rates, the dollar and the cost of carry

• The 10-year Treasury yield was 3.97% on 27 February and 5.24% on 9 October ^{[10, 11]}. The 2-year yield ended at 4.80%, above the Fed's 3.75–4.00% range, a sign that markets price more hikes ^{[10, 12]}.
• The dollar neared its strongest level in 18 months after the Fed minutes ^{[28, 42]}.
• China's central bank added 0.74 million troy ounces of gold in September, its 23rd straight monthly addition, taking its holdings to 77.47 million ounces ^{[43, 44, 45]}.

Gained ground: the United States, whose 5% bond yield pulls capital toward Treasuries and the dollar. Lost ground: importers of dollar-priced commodities, who pay twice, on price and on the currency.

Where the players stand, seen from the commodity markets

How the week connected

1. Hormuz attacks → spot crude → diesel. Flows ran more than a quarter below pre-war, Brent spot held $125.44 on 6 October and diesel spot traded at $4.713 a gallon ^{[1, 4, 5, 6]}. The EIA said diesel tightness adds to crude demand as refiners run harder ^[34].
2. Diesel shortage → strategic stocks. IEA members backed a faster release of about 100 million barrels, diesel first, and the G7 tied its pledge to the unfinished March release ^{[8, 9, 41, 49]}.
3. Oil → the Fed → Treasury yields. Fed officials warned that the longer energy prices stay high, the greater the risk of broader price pressure ^[12]. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on Monday ^[10].
4. Treasury yields → the dollar → metals. The dollar neared an 18-month high after the minutes ^{[28, 42]}. The 10-year yield then eased to 5.22% on Thursday, and December gold rose about $60 on Friday ^{[10, 25, 50]}.
5. A Gulf hurricane → the Brent–WTI spread. Isaias cut US offshore output by about 1.28 million barrels a day, and on Friday December Brent settled at $104.72 against $91.85 for November WTI ^{[2, 17, 18, 19, 25, 51]}. A spread of about $13 keeps US crude exports, 4,765 thousand barrels a day, flowing to Europe and Asia ^[7].

Sources for the chart: ^{[1, 4, 6, 8, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57]}.

What it means for you

• If you borrow. The Fed's range is 3.75–4.00% with another increase likely this year, and the 10-year Treasury yield is 5.24% ^{[10, 12]}. Mortgages and term loans priced off long rates stay expensive while oil keeps inflation risk high.
• If you hold cash. The one-year Treasury par yield closed at 4.47% on Friday ^[10]. That beats most commodities without a physical shortage behind them, but not diesel, up about 75% since 27 February ^[4].
• If you invest. December gold rose more than 1% on the week to about $4,220 an ounce despite a 5.24% risk-free yield, while central banks keep buying ^{[10, 25, 43, 50, 58, 59]}. Corn lost ground once Friday's USDA report raised the crop ^{[23, 24, 25]}.
• If you run a business. US retail diesel averaged $6.199 a gallon on 5 October, against $3.711 a year earlier ^[7]. The EIA expects about $4.50 next year, a relief that depends on Gulf flows recovering ^[34].
• If you pay for fuel and food. US regular gasoline averaged $4.354 a gallon on 5 October, up from $3.124 a year earlier ^[7]. Grain-based food should ease after the larger corn crop, while cooking oils stay tight ^[23].
• If you deal in more than one currency. The dollar neared its strongest level in 18 months after the Fed minutes ^{[28, 42]}. Buyers paying in euros, rupees or yen pay more for every barrel and bushel; Europe already pays a record €2.24 a litre for diesel ^{[8, 48]}.

The detail

1. Physical crude and diesel trade far above futures, and the EIA raised its forecast

What happened. Brent spot was $125.44 a barrel on 6 October and WTI spot $96.24, against futures settlements of $100.58 for December Brent and $89.44 for November WTI that day ^{[1, 2, 3, 51, 52, 60]}. Brent spot had jumped to $135.51 on 2 October ^[1]. On 6 October the EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $14 to $105 a barrel, and put 2027 at $84 ^[34].

Why. The EIA cited attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and extreme diesel tightness ^[34]. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, and US distillate stocks of 105.1 million barrels in the week to 2 October were 13.5% below a year earlier ^{[7, 34]}.

Knock-on effects. A $25 spot premium tells refiners and shippers that prompt barrels are scarce, rewarding holders of physical stock and punishing prompt buyers ^{[1, 2, 3]}. Retail prices follow spot, so they lag any relief in futures.

2. Governments are draining reserves to buy time

What happened. US commercial crude stocks fell 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million in the week to 2 October, against expectations of a 1.7 million barrel build, and the SPR fell 0.8 million barrels to 283.0 million ^{[7, 61, 62]}. Total US petroleum stocks including the SPR were 173.8 million barrels lower than a year earlier ^[7].

Why. The G7 said on 2 October it would release 100 million barrels over four months, diesel first, but that pledge completes the unfinished part of the IEA's 400 million barrel March action rather than adding new oil ^{[26, 41, 49, 63]}. Before the week began, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said several European members had released only a fraction of their pledges ^[40].

Knock-on effects. Fatih Birol said the IEA "stands ready to release more of these stocks to the market if and when required" ^{[8, 9]}. The US release of 172 million barrels continues, with exchange deliveries scheduled for November and December ^[40]. Each release lowers today's price but leaves less for the next shock.

3. A hiking Fed and a 5% Treasury yield set the hurdle for every commodity

What happened. The FOMC raised its range to 3.75–4.00% in September, and minutes released on 7 October showed most participants judged another increase by year-end likely appropriate ^[12]. The 10-year Treasury yield ranged from 5.22% to 5.31% and ended at 5.24%; the 30-year closed at 5.60% ^[10].

Why. Participants said geopolitical developments had pushed up fuel prices and assessed inflation risk as "skewed to the upside" ^[12].

Knock-on effects. Gold pays no interest, so the Treasury yield is its cost of carry ^[10]. December gold still rose more than 1% on the week ^{[25, 50, 58, 59]}. Official buying, led by China, kept gold bid ^{[43, 44]}.

4. Chilean strikes put copper supply at risk as funds cut their bets

What happened. A strike began at Antofagasta's Centinela mine in Chile on 7 October, and supervisors at BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, voted to authorise a strike ^{[28, 29, 30]}. Managed money cut long positions in COMEX copper by 15,258 contracts in the week to 6 October ^[14].

Why. The dollar neared its strongest level in 18 months after the Fed minutes, which makes dollar-priced metals dearer for buyers elsewhere ^{[28, 30, 42]}. A 5% Treasury yield also raises the cost of holding metal ^[10].

Knock-on effects. Cable and grid equipment makers face a supply risk from Chile, while lighter fund positions leave room for a rally if the stoppages spread ^{[14, 29]}. The strong dollar limits how far copper's supply story can run ^[28].

5. USDA made corn plentiful and kept wheat and vegetable oils tight

What happened. USDA raised US corn production to 16.0 billion bushels on a 181.2 bushel yield, lifted ending stocks by 282 million to 1.8 billion and cut its price to $4.70 ^[23]. The yield came in above what traders had expected ^{[64, 65]}. US wheat output of 1,534 million bushels is the smallest since 1970 ^[23].

Why. USDA raised projected corn beginning stocks by 173 million bushels after the 30 September Grain Stocks report ^[23]. Dry weather cut Indonesia's palm oil prospects, and Black Sea disruptions held Russia's wheat exports down ^[23].

Knock-on effects. December corn fell about 3.5% on the week, while November soybeans rose about 1% to about 1,290 cents and December wheat fell to about 671 cents ^{[24, 25, 59, 66, 67]}. December soybean oil ended at about 68 cents a pound ^{[25, 68]}. March raw sugar rose to about 20.3 cents a pound and December cotton rose from 78.88 cents to above 80 cents, even as USDA raised the US cotton crop 2% ^{[23, 25, 59, 69, 70, 71, 72]}.

6. US gas stays comfortable while Europe's tightens

What happened. US working gas in storage rose 85 Bcf to 3,500 Bcf in the week to 2 October, 68 Bcf above the five-year average ^[73]. Henry Hub spot was $3.03 on 6 October ^[74].

Why. Isaias shut in 57.4% of Gulf offshore gas output by Thursday, up from 16.37% on Wednesday ^{[17, 18, 75]}. The EIA expects Henry Hub to average $3.16 in 2027 as production growth offsets rising LNG exports ^[34].

Knock-on effects. Storage above the five-year average and a spot price near $3 keep gas costs low for US industry and power users, while Europe pays a record €2.24 a litre for diesel ^{[8, 48, 73, 74]}.

Positioning: who is betting on what

Managed money positions on Tuesday 6 October, from the CFTC report released Friday 9 October, before Thursday's oil rally and Friday's USDA report ^[76].

Speculators trimmed momentum bets in WTI, copper, gold and corn as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, and added only where shortage is visible, in gasoline, soybeans and sugar ^{[10, 13, 14, 15]}. With the risk-free return above 5%, a leveraged long must earn more than that to justify its margin. Funds are light in diesel and short in Henry Hub, so crude, diesel and gas are open to short-covering rallies if Hormuz, Chilean mines or the hurricane restart disappoint.

Key data table

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Tuesday 13 October: USDA Crop Progress

What it tells you: the pace of the US harvest, at 4:00 p.m. Eastern time, a day late because of Monday's Columbus Day holiday ^[78]. A slow harvest after September's heavy rain would support soybeans; a fast one would add to pressure on corn ^{[23, 64, 65]}.

Wednesday 14 October: US consumer prices and the IEA oil report

What it tells you: September CPI at 8:30 a.m., the IEA's October Oil Market Report and the Fed's Beige Book ^{[27, 79, 80]}. A hot CPI reading would raise the odds of a December hike and push Treasury yields and the dollar up, which weighs on gold and copper ^[12]. A soft reading would give metals room to extend Friday's rebound.

Next week: the IEA Governing Board sets the next stock release

Who decides: the IEA Governing Board of member governments, at its next scheduled meeting ^{[9, 26]}.

• Complete the March action faster, diesel first. This would narrow diesel's premium in the near term without adding to the total ^{[9, 26, 41]}.
• Approve a new release beyond 400 million barrels. This would cut spot prices harder but shrink the 1.1 billion barrel buffer before winter ^{[8, 9]}.
• Wait for Hormuz talks. This would keep the spot premium wide and raise the risk of a US diesel export ban to Europe ^{[41, 49, 63]}.

Most likely: faster completion of the March action, diesel first, since member governments already backed that on 7 October ^{[9, 26]}. That eases diesel spreads modestly into November but leaves crude dependent on Gulf flows.

Thursday 15 October: EIA petroleum and gas inventories

What it tells you: the first hurricane effects, with the petroleum report at noon Eastern time and gas storage the same day ^{[73, 81]}. A large crude and distillate draw would widen the spot premium again; a quick restart of the 1.28 million barrels a day shut in would ease WTI against Brent ^{[17, 18]}. A gas injection above 85 Bcf would keep Henry Hub near $3 ^[73].

Friday 16 October: CFTC Commitments of Traders

What it tells you: positions as of 13 October ^[76]. If funds rebuilt WTI and copper longs after Thursday's rally, money is chasing the shortage again; further selling would mean the 5% Treasury yield still wins.

Tuesday 27 – Wednesday 28 October: the Federal Reserve sets rates

Who decides: the Federal Open Market Committee ^[82].

• Raise by a quarter point. This would lift yields and the dollar and raise the cost of holding gold and copper ^[12].
• Hold and signal a December increase. This keeps the path most participants described in the minutes ^[12].
• Hold and signal a pause. This would weaken the dollar and lift metals and grains.

Most likely: a hold with a signal of a year-end increase, in line with the minutes ^[12]. Long yields stay above 5%, and only shortage-backed rallies hold.

Sunday 1 November: the seven OPEC+ countries set December output

Who decides: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman ^[35].

• Hold at September's required level. This repeats the October and November pauses ^{[83, 84]}.
• Resume increases. The group raised output every month through September; a return would signal confidence in export routes ^{[83, 84]}.

Most likely: another hold, because actual supply has run below headline increases ^{[83, 85]}. That keeps Brent futures near $100 and leaves relief to Iran and to IEA stocks.

Tuesday 10 November: China's rare earth export pause expires

Who decides: China's Ministry of Commerce ^[31].

• Extend the suspension. Magnet and alloy supply keeps flowing to US and European makers ^{[31, 33]}.
• Reinstate selected controls. This would tighten specific heavy rare earths and raise costs for defence and motor makers ^[31].
• Reimpose the full October 2025 measures. This would hit any product with Chinese rare earth content, given China's 69.2% share of 2025 mine output ^{[31, 32]}.

Most likely: an extension or a selective reinstatement, since existing licensing already gives Beijing case-by-case control ^[31]. That keeps magnet and alloy supply flowing but leaves costs for defence and motor makers exposed to licensing decisions; the deadline falls a week after the 3 November US midterms ^{[21, 86]}.

The following weeks: data that reset the balance

• Tuesday 10 November: USDA's next WASDE report ^[23]. A further rise in US corn stocks would push feed costs lower; a cut to palm output would lift vegetable oils.
• Tuesday 10 November: the EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook ^[34]. A Brent forecast above $105 for the fourth quarter would signal a slower Gulf recovery; a lower one would point to fuel relief in 2027.

Where this is heading

Base case: oil stays high but range-bound, with diesel the pressure point. December Brent near $100–105 and spot well above it reflect flows recovering through bypass routes but still more than a quarter below pre-war at Hormuz ^{[2, 5, 6, 34]}. Signposts: the IEA Governing Board next week, the weekly SPR draw and the gap between spot and futures ^{[1, 7, 9]}.

Upside: a Hormuz deal brings relief. Iran is reviewing a US response to a proposal that could reopen the strait within seven days, the timetable of Iran's own September plan ^{[21, 22, 87]}. A deal would close the spot premium first, then pull futures toward the EIA's $84 forecast for 2027 ^[34]. Signposts: fewer tanker attacks and Hormuz flows back toward pre-war levels ^{[5, 6]}.

Downside: a second Gulf shock with a thinner buffer. If attacks on Saudi export routes or tankers escalate, governments have less to release than in March ^{[8, 34]}. Brent spot reached $138.21 on 7 April ^[1]. Signposts: East-West pipeline attacks, an October Fed hike and a stronger dollar ^{[34, 82]}.

The long run. The war has made strategic stocks, refining and shipping routes the decisive assets of the matter pillar, and those who hold them (the United States in crude, China in fuel exports and rare earths) set terms for the rest ^{[7, 31, 38]}. On money, a 5% Treasury yield rewards Washington and taxes importers in Europe, India and Asia twice ^{[10, 12]}. On mind, copper and data-centre power demand pull metal toward whichever bloc builds fastest, while central banks led by China turn reserves into gold ^{[34, 43]}. Importing economies pay through fuel, food and borrowing costs.

Sources

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40. The United States Energy Department Continues Execution of Strategic Reserve Release Commitments. U.S. Department of Energy, 29 September 2026. https://www.energy.gov/node/4860435
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42. Silver Powers 2% Above $60 as a Strong 30-Year Auction Cools Yields; Physical Gold Rebounds to $4,183. USAGOLD, 9 October 2026. https://www.usagold.com/daily-precious-metals-market-report-october-9-2026/
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46. India's now importing pre-conflict levels of Gulf crude; share of Russian oil lowest since April. ThePrint, 29 September 2026. https://theprint.in/india/india-crude-oil-imports-gulf-supplies/3057012/
47. Indian Refiners Cut Russian Crude Imports To 1.75 Million Barrels Daily Amid Tightening Supplies. Swarajya, 29 September 2026. https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/indian-refiners-cut-russian-crude-imports-to-175-million-barrels-daily-amid-tightening-supplies-and-china-rivalry
48. EU diesel prices hit record 2.24 euros a litre. Hurriyet Daily News, 1 October 2026. https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/eu-diesel-prices-hit-record-2-24-euros-a-litre-227617
49. G7 to release 100m oil barrels as Trump hails Europe diesel deal. Al Jazeera, 2 October 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/10/2/trump-says-europe-agrees-to-release-massive-amount-diesel-stockpile
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62. US crude oil inventories fall by 3.2 million barrels, according to EIA. Inspenet, 8 October 2026. https://inspenet.com/en/news/us-crude-oil-inventories-fall-by-3-2-million-barrels-according-to-eia/
63. G7 countries agree on release of diesel and oil stocks after US pressure. Virginia Business, 2 October 2026. https://virginiabusiness.com/europe-agrees-release-diesel-oil-stocks/
64. US Harvests Delayed, USDA to Gauge Crop Sizes. DTN Progressive Farmer, 7 October 2026. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2026/10/07/us-harvests-delayed-usda-gauge-crop
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85. OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady. ARY News, 4 October 2026. https://arynews.tv/opec-agrees-to-keep-november-oil-output-targets-steady
86. Trump says US will not resume military strikes on Iran before the midterm elections. WCAX, 8 October 2026. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/08/trump-says-us-will-not-resume-military-strikes-iran-before-midterm-elections/
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