← All six issues this week

India Markets & Economy Weekly

Week covered: Monday 5 October – Friday 9 October 2026 · Published Saturday 10 October 2026 · By Nitesh Soni

Key takeaways

1. India has switched from cushioning growth to defending its money, and borrowers will pay for that defence. The Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on 7 October, unanimously, and changed its stance to "calibrated tightening" ^[1]. It said rate cuts are off the table in the near term and that the next move can be a hike or a pause ^[1]. The RBI said headline inflation should average almost 5.8% over the next three quarters ^{[1, 2]}. Loan rates linked to the repo rate rise, and the bar for any easing before 2027 has moved up.

2. A 5.24% risk-free Treasury yield is pulling capital out of India faster than a 7.3% Indian yield can hold it. The US 10-year Treasury par yield closed at 5.24% on Friday 9 October, up from 4.18% at the end of 2025, after a 2026 high close of 5.31% on 5 October ^{[3, 4]}. India's 10-year yield ended the week at about 7.30% ^{[5, 6]}, having settled at 7.24% on 7 October, near a three-year high ^{[7, 8]}. Foreign investors sold ₹12,943.58 crore of Indian shares on Thursday alone ^{[9, 10]}. With the rupee down about 7% against the dollar this year ^{[11, 12]}, the extra yield on Indian bonds has been eaten by the currency.

3. Oil above $100 is India's tax on every rupee, and it shows up first in wholesale prices. Brent futures for December 2026 delivery settled at $104.72 a barrel on 9 October, against $102.25 a week earlier ^{[13, 14, 15]}. The Indian crude basket averaged $116.1 a barrel in September, up from $82.0 in July ^[2]. Wholesale inflation was 9.92% in August, with fuel and power at 22.93% ^[16], against retail inflation of 4.82% ^[17]. Those costs are still moving from factory gates to shop shelves, and the RBI expects retail inflation of 6.0% in October to December ^[1].

4. The reserve shield is being spent, but it is still large. Foreign exchange reserves fell by $12.952 billion to $734.606 billion in the week to 2 October ^[18], after a fall of $18.343 billion in the week to 25 September ^[19]. The Governor put import cover at around 11 months and committed the RBI to "orderly adjustments" in the rupee ^[2]. A smaller cushion means the rupee will be allowed to move more, and imported goods will cost more.

5. North Asia's chip boom is drawing the money that once flowed to India, and it is no longer one-way even there. Taiwan's Taiex is up about 70% this year and Korea's KOSPI more than 50% ^{[20, 21]}, while the Nifty 50 is down about 14% from its end-2025 close of 26,129.60 ^{[22, 23, 24, 25]}. Yet KOSPI fell 5.4% this week, from 7,003.74 to 6,625.93, with foreign investors selling a net of about 2 trillion won of Korean shares on 8 October alone ^{[26, 27, 28, 29]}. Capital is choosing narrowly: AI hardware first, and only at a price that beats a 5% Treasury.

6. Next week tests whether the RBI can drain rupees without breaking the bond market. The RBI sells ₹25,000 crore of government bonds on Tuesday 13 October ^[30], a day after September retail inflation is published on Monday 12 October ^[31]. US consumer prices and China's prices both follow on 14 October ^{[32, 33]}. A high Indian reading on Monday would make a December hike the base case and keep long yields near three-year highs.

Mind, matter, money: where India stands

The contest between the United States and China runs through India this year mostly as cost. In technology, North Asia's chipmakers are capturing the gains of the AI build-out while India's IT services firms sell the software layer. In energy and materials, India buys most of its crude abroad and still depends on China for rare-earth magnets. In money, a Federal Reserve that has been raising rates and a 5% Treasury yield set the price every rupee asset has to beat. Russia, the Gulf, Japan, Korea and Taiwan all shape where India lands.

Mind: chips in Seoul and Taipei, services in Mumbai

• Samsung Electronics put its preliminary July–September operating profit at a record 107.4 trillion won, up 782% from a year earlier, on revenue of 195 trillion won ^{[34, 35, 36]}. KOSPI still fell 2.62% on the day of the release, as worries about a peak in memory chips hit an index heavy in Samsung and SK hynix ^{[20, 28, 37, 38]}.
• TSMC's September revenue was about NT$511.86 billion, up 54.6% from a year earlier, and its January–September revenue rose 41.1% ^[39].
• Tata Consultancy Services reported July–September revenue of ₹73,188 crore, up 11.2%, net profit up about 15%, annualised AI revenue of $3.1 billion (more than 10% of revenue) and $9.6 billion of new contracts ^{[40, 41, 42, 43]}. India earns from AI as a services seller, a smaller and steadier slice than the hardware makers' windfall.
• The Governor named "risks of an unwieldy correction in valuation of AI stocks" among the threats to the outlook ^[2], a risk that sits mostly in markets India's investors are underweight.

Gained ground: Taiwan, whose AI earnings keep broadening (TSMC revenue up 54.6% in September). Lost ground: Korea's market, which fell despite Samsung's record profit as foreign money left; India, still a buyer rather than a maker of chips.

Matter: crude above $100, and a new search for magnets

• Russian crude supply to India fell to about 1.74 million barrels a day in September, on ship-tracking data to late September, the lowest since April, from 2.66 million in July ^{[44, 45, 46]}. Iraq (about 575,000 barrels a day) and Saudi Arabia (about 566,000) filled the gap ^{[44, 45]}.
• President Trump said on 8 October that talks with Iran were "productive" and signalled no resumption of strikes before the 3 November US midterm vote ^[47]; Brent had risen about 4% that day ^{[13, 48]}. Brent settled the week at $104.72, still above $100 ^{[13, 15]}.
• Shaktikanta Das, Principal Secretary-2 to the Prime Minister, said at the Kautilya Economic Conclave on 4 October, the day before the week began, that 80 to 90% of rare-earth magnet supply originates in China and that India is building domestic capacity in these magnets ^{[49, 50]}. He said the government has approved the Samudra Manthan deepwater exploration scheme ^[49].

Gained ground: the Gulf producers, back to about pre-conflict volumes in India's import mix ^{[44, 45]}. Lost ground: Russia, whose supply to India fell to its lowest since April ^{[44, 46]}; India, paying $116.1 a barrel for its basket in September ^[2].

Money: the RBI tightens as the dollar pulls capital home

• The RBI raised the repo rate to 5.50%, with the standing deposit facility at 5.25% and the marginal standing facility at 5.75% ^[1]. On 9 October it announced a ₹25,000 crore sale of government bonds maturing 2030 to 2034, to be held on 13 October ^[30].
• The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on 16 September, 12 to 0 ^[51]. US consumer prices rose 3.4% in the year to August ^[32], and the University of Michigan's preliminary October survey put consumers' one-year inflation expectation at 4.7% ^{[47, 52]}.
• Foreign portfolio investors took out a net $10.3 billion from India between April and 5 October, while net foreign direct investment was $13.8 billion in April–August, up from $9.6 billion a year earlier ^[2].
• India's current account deficit was 0.5% of GDP ($4.2 billion) in April–June ^[2], small enough that the rupee's slide is a capital-account story, not a trade-account one.

Gained ground: the United States, whose 5.24% 10-year yield is the world's hurdle rate ^[3]. Lost ground: India's bond and equity markets, which lost foreign money all week; the rupee, down about 7% against the dollar this year ^{[11, 12]}.

Where the players stand, seen from India

How the week connected

1. US yields → foreign selling → Indian shares. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31% on 5 October and 5.24% on 9 October ^[3], and foreign portfolio investors took a net ₹44,166 crore out of Indian equities in October to 9 October ^[65]. Domestic institutions bought ₹10,703.11 crore on Thursday, absorbing most of that day's selling ^{[9, 66]}.
2. Oil → the rupee → the RBI's reserves. Brent jumped about 4% on 8 October ^{[13, 48]} and the rupee closed at 96.88 per dollar that day ^{[67, 68]}, before recovering to 96.71 on Friday ^{[69, 70]}. Reserves fell $12.952 billion in the week to 2 October, $10.664 billion of it from foreign currency assets ^[18].
3. The RBI's hike → bond yields → government borrowing costs. India's 10-year yield rose about five basis points to 7.24% on the day of the hike ^{[7, 8]} and to about 7.30% by Friday ^{[5, 6]}. On 9 October the government sold a 2041 bond at a cut-off yield of 7.4898% and a 2076 bond at 7.8015% ^[71].
4. Cheap rupees in the banks → bond sales and reverse repos. System liquidity averaged a surplus of ₹5.9 lakh crore a day since August, and net absorption reached ₹7.8 lakh crore a day in September ^[2]. The RBI answered with a ₹25,000 crore bond sale for 13 October ^[30], which pulls rupees out of the system and adds supply to the bond market.
5. Memory-chip worries → Korea's market → Asia's flows. KOSPI fell for three straight sessions to 6,625.93 on 8 October ^{[26, 28, 37]}, while Taiwan held near its record ^{[57, 58]}. Money moved inside North Asia, not towards India.
6. Washington's Iran signal → oil → Friday's Indian rally. Trump's comments on 8 October about talks with Iran ^[47] coincided with Sensex gaining 1.23% and Nifty 1.30% on Friday, ending an eight-week losing run ^{[25, 72, 73]}.

Sources for the chart: ^{[11, 12, 56, 74, 75, 76, 77]}.

India against its competitors for capital

India gained less than Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong this week and far less than Taiwan and Korea this year ^{[20, 21, 24, 57, 61, 83]}, and foreign investors keep selling its shares while its currency falls ^{[11, 12, 65]}. Foreign portfolio investors have taken a net ₹3.04 lakh crore out of Indian equities in 2026, up to 9 October ^[65]. Against a US 10-year Treasury yield of 5.24% on 9 October ^[3], an Indian equity has to promise earnings growth large enough to cover both that risk-free return and a currency that has lost about 7% this year ^{[11, 12]}. Until the rupee steadies, the Treasury wins that comparison for most foreign money.

The hurdle every market has to clear: 10-year government bond yields

India's 10-year pays about 2.06 points more than the US 10-year ^{[3, 5, 6]}, and against August retail inflation of 4.82% ^[17] its real yield is about 2.5%, above the US real yield of about 1.8% on August CPI of 3.4% ^{[3, 32]}. That would be a strong offer if the rupee held. A foreign investor who bought an Indian 10-year bond at the start of the year has lost more on the currency (about 7%) than the yield gap has paid ^{[11, 12]}. The RBI's hike is partly an attempt to widen that gap enough to stop the outflow.

What it means for you

• If you borrow. The repo rate is now 5.50% and the RBI has said cuts are off the table in the near term ^[1], so loans linked to the repo rate will reprice upwards. Bank credit was still growing 19.4% a year at the end of September ^[18], which is part of why the RBI is leaning against demand.
• If you hold cash. The RBI's standing deposit facility rate is 5.25% ^[1] and retail inflation was 4.82% in August ^[17], so short-term deposits still beat inflation, but only narrowly if inflation reaches the RBI's 6.0% forecast for October–December ^[1].
• If you invest. The government's 2041 bond sold at a 7.4898% yield on 9 October ^[71], and long yields sit near three-year highs ^{[7, 8]}. Equities fell about 14% this year to Friday ^{[22, 23, 24]} while foreign selling continued ^{[9, 78]}, so returns now depend on domestic buyers and on oil.
• If you run a business. Wholesale inflation was 9.92% in August, with fuel and power up 22.93% ^[16], and the RBI expects GDP growth of 7.1% this fiscal year ^[1]. Input costs are rising faster than final prices, which squeezes margins before it lifts revenue.
• If you pay for fuel and food. Food inflation was 5.95% in August ^[17], and the crude basket averaged $116.1 a barrel in September ^[2]. Fuel and transport costs are the channel through which oil above $100 reaches household budgets.
• If you deal in more than one currency. The rupee closed at 96.88 per dollar on 8 October and 96.71 on 9 October ^{[67, 68, 69, 70]}, against 89.87 at the end of 2025 (ECB reference rate, crossed) ^{[11, 12]}. The won and yuan have both risen against the dollar this year while the rupee fell ^{[12, 56, 74]}, so costs priced in North Asian currencies have risen fastest.

The detail

1. The RBI chose credibility over growth, and signalled more to come

What happened. The Monetary Policy Committee met on 5–7 October and raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% in a unanimous vote ^[1]. Two members, Nagesh Kumar and Ram Singh, preferred to keep a neutral stance, but the committee moved it to calibrated tightening ^[1]. The RBI projected retail inflation of 5.2% for 2026-27, 6.0% for October–December and 5.7% for January–March, with core inflation at 4.4% ^[1].

Why. Retail inflation rose to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July ^[17]. The Governor said inflation and its outlook "are not benign as they were last year" ^{[1, 2]}. Oil is the main channel: the Indian crude basket averaged $82.0 a barrel in July, $90.2 in August and $116.1 in September ^[2]. Money and credit are also running fast, with broad money up 16.9% and bank credit up 19.4% from a year earlier at 30 September ^[18].

Knock-on effects. The RBI still expects growth of 7.1% for 2026-27, with risks it calls evenly balanced ^[1], so it judges the economy can absorb higher rates. Bond markets read the tone as hawkish: the 10-year yield rose to 7.24%, near a three-year high ^{[7, 8]}. The next meeting is on 2–4 December, and the minutes of this one come out on 21 October ^[1].

2. Foreign money kept leaving India, and domestic money caught it

What happened. Foreign investors sold a net ₹12,943.58 crore of Indian shares on 8 October, while domestic institutions bought ₹10,703.11 crore ^{[9, 66]}. Sensex fell 1,045.46 points to 71,593.24 that day ^{[9, 48]}. On Friday, foreign investors sold another ₹3,569 crore and domestic institutions bought ₹4,743 crore ^{[25, 78]}, and Sensex rose 1.23% to 72,472.33 ^{[25, 72]}.

Why. A 5.24% Treasury yield ^[3], a falling rupee and oil above $100 ^[13] all cut the dollar return on Indian assets. Foreign portfolio investors took out a net $10.3 billion between April and 5 October ^[2], and in September alone they sold a net ₹35,861 crore of Indian equities ^[65].

Knock-on effects. Sensex rose 0.8% and Nifty 0.4% on the week, ending an eight-week losing run ^{[25, 73]}. Valuations are now set by domestic savings, which makes the market steadier but slower to recover. Each foreign sale also means dollars leaving, which adds to pressure on the rupee and on reserves.

3. Reserves fell sharply for a second week as the RBI defended the rupee

What happened. Reserves fell $12.952 billion to $734.606 billion in the week to 2 October, with foreign currency assets down $10.664 billion and gold down $2.288 billion ^[18]. The week before, reserves fell $18.343 billion ^[19].

Why. The rupee closed at 96.88 per dollar on 8 October ^{[67, 68]}, as foreign investors sold shares, with suspected RBI intervention supporting it at weaker levels ^{[9, 67, 70]}. The Governor said the RBI remains committed to "orderly adjustments" in the exchange rate ^[2].

Knock-on effects. Reserves still cover around 11 months of imports and 94.4% of external debt ^[2]. But a central bank that sells dollars drains rupees, and here the system already had surplus cash of about ₹5.9 lakh crore a day ^[2]. The two pressures meet in the bond market, where the RBI is now a seller.

4. The RBI turned seller of government bonds to drain cash

What happened. On 9 October the RBI announced it would sell ₹25,000 crore of government bonds on 13 October, across six securities maturing between March 2030 and April 2034 ^[30]. The same day, the government sold ₹23,000 crore of a 2041 bond at 7.4898% and ₹13,000 crore of a 2076 bond at 7.8015%, with nothing left for primary dealers to absorb ^[71]. Primary dealers underwrote the full ₹36,000 crore ^[89].

Why. Net liquidity absorption rose from ₹1.2 lakh crore a day in July to ₹5.8 lakh crore in August and ₹7.8 lakh crore in September ^[2]. Surplus cash keeps overnight rates below the policy rate, which weakens the effect of a hike. Selling bonds takes that cash out for good, while reverse repos only park it.

Knock-on effects. More bond supply, at a time when foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of Indian debt in September ^[65], pushes yields up and makes government and corporate borrowing dearer. The 2041 and 2076 auction yields above 7.4% ^[71] set the floor for state governments and companies issuing long-term debt.

5. North Asia's AI trade split in two, and India sat outside it

What happened. KOSPI fell 5.4% on the week to 6,625.93 on 8 October ^{[26, 27, 28]}, although Samsung had just reported record preliminary operating profit of 107.4 trillion won ^{[34, 36]}. Taiwan's Taiex closed at a record 49,822.55 on 6 October and at 49,313.44 on 8 October ^{[57, 59, 60]}. TSMC's September revenue rose 54.6% from a year earlier ^[39].

Why. KOSPI's weighting in memory chips makes it vulnerable to fears of a memory peak, and foreign selling has been concentrated in Samsung and SK hynix ^{[20, 38]}. An analyst at Yuanta Securities Korea linked the gap to "the higher discount rate applied to the Korean stock market in a high-rate, high-oil-price environment" ^[20]. Foreign investors sold a net 20.3 trillion won of Korean shares between 1 September and 2 October ^{[38, 90]}.

Knock-on effects. If money leaving Korea moves to Taiwan rather than to India, India's discount to North Asia persists. India's link to AI runs through services: TCS's annualised AI revenue of $3.1 billion is more than 10% of its revenue ^{[40, 43]}. That is steady income, but it does not attract the large flows chipmakers do.

6. Trade talks with Washington have stalled while Russian oil fades from the mix

What happened. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on 5 October that the India-US trade talks had "reached a plateau beyond which giving or taking might be very, very difficult" ^[53]. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said a deal was not "imminent" ^{[53, 54]}. Russian crude supply to India fell to about 1.74 million barrels a day in September ^{[44, 46]}.

Why. The unresolved items include a US investigation into trade practices that covers India among several countries ^{[53, 54]}. Refiners switched towards Iraq and Saudi Arabia ^{[44, 45]}.

Knock-on effects. A smaller Russian share reduces one point of friction with Washington, but at the cost of the discount Russian barrels carried. Without a deal, exporters to the US face continued uncertainty, which the Governor listed with elevated bond yields as a risk to the outlook ^[2].

Key data table

Next week: decisions, options and what they lead to

Monday 12 October: India's September retail inflation

What it tells you: whether oil and wholesale costs are reaching consumers, after 4.82% in August ^{[17, 31]}. A reading above 5% would back the RBI's forecast of 6.0% for October–December ^[1] and make a December hike likely; a reading near or below August's would ease pressure on bond yields and the rupee. The same day, HCLTech's board meets to approve its July–September results ^{[93, 94]}, a check on whether services demand is holding up.

Tuesday 13 October: the RBI sells ₹25,000 crore of government bonds

Who decides: the Reserve Bank of India, which can sell less than the full amount and accept or reject any bid ^[30].

• Sell the full amount at market yields. Cash surplus shrinks, overnight rates move up towards the 5.50% repo rate, and 2030–2034 bond yields rise.
• Sell part, rejecting high-yield bids. Signals the RBI wants tighter liquidity without a disorderly rise in yields; bond yields steady near 7.3%.
• Scale back future sales. Would suggest the RBI fears bond-market stress more than surplus cash, and would weaken the rupee defence.

Most likely: a full or near-full sale, because surplus cash averaged ₹5.9 lakh crore a day since August ^[2]. Short-term borrowing costs rise, which supports the rupee by making it costlier to bet against, but long yields stay near three-year highs.

Wednesday 14 October: wholesale prices in India, and consumer prices in the US and China

What it tells you: whether the oil shock is still feeding producer and consumer prices in India, the United States and China ^{[32, 33, 95]}.

• India WPI for September ^[95]: if fuel and power inflation stays above 20%, as in August (22.93%) ^[16], margins would keep shrinking and more of that cost would pass to retail prices in coming months.
• US CPI for September ^[32]: a reading above August's 3.4% would push Treasury yields back towards this year's 5.31% high and pull more money out of India; a lower one would give the rupee room.
• China CPI and PPI for September ^[33]: if prices stay weak, Chinese yields would stay near 1.7% and the yuan would keep competing on cheap exports.

Thursday 15 October: India's monthly labour force survey

What it tells you: whether urban jobs are holding up in September under higher rates and oil ^[31]. A weak reading would strengthen the two MPC members who wanted a neutral stance; a strong one would support further tightening.

Tuesday 27 – Wednesday 28 October: the Federal Reserve decides

Who decides: the Federal Open Market Committee ^[96].

• Raise the range by a quarter point to 4.00–4.25%. The dollar strengthens, Treasury yields stay above 5%, and outflows from India continue.
• Hold at 3.75–4.00%. Treasury yields could ease from their 2026 highs and give emerging-market currencies, the rupee included, some relief.

Most likely: one more quarter-point rise by December, at this meeting or the next, since the median of officials' September projections puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, above the current 3.75–4.00% range ^{[51, 97, 98]}, with inflation at 3.4% ^[32]. That keeps the Treasury hurdle for India above 5% for the rest of the year and the dollar firm against the rupee.

Thursday 29 – Friday 30 October: the Bank of Japan decides

Who decides: the Bank of Japan's Policy Board ^[99].

• Raise the overnight rate above around 1.25%. The yen strengthens, Japanese yields rise further, and money borrowed cheaply in yen to buy Asian assets is pulled back.
• Hold. The yen stays weak near 158 per dollar ^{[12, 86]} and cheap funding persists for another quarter.

Most likely: a hold, after a 7–2 vote in September to set the overnight rate at around 1.25% ^[64]. A hike would add to the pressure on emerging Asia, including India, by raising the cost of yen funding.

The following weeks: China's growth, RBI minutes and Indian earnings

• Monday 19 October, China's July–September GDP ^[33]: a weak figure would add to calls for stimulus and could lift demand for commodities, which would raise India's import costs.
• Tuesday 20 October: Indian markets are closed for Dussehra ^[100].
• Wednesday 21 October, minutes of the RBI's October meeting ^[1]: if more members argue for further hikes, bond yields would rise; if the two neutral voices gain support, the rupee would come under renewed pressure.
• Friday 23 October, Infosys results ^{[101, 102]}: strong AI-linked revenue would support the view that India earns from the AI cycle through services.

Where this is heading

Base case: India grinds through a tight quarter with the rupee near 97 and long yields near 7.3%. The RBI keeps draining cash and hikes again in December if inflation rises towards its 6.0% forecast for October–December ^[1]. Signposts: September CPI on 12 October ^[31], the bond sale on 13 October ^[30], and weekly reserve figures, which fell by $12.952 billion in the latest week ^[18].

Upside: a US-Iran settlement pulls oil back below $100 and lets capital return. Trump's signal of no strikes before the 3 November vote ^[47] is the first step. Brent below $100, a Fed hold on 28 October ^[96] and a pause in foreign selling would let the rupee recover and give Indian bonds their 2-point yield advantage over Treasuries without the currency loss ^{[3, 5]}. Signposts: Brent, the Fed decision and daily foreign flows.

Downside: oil spikes again and the US 10-year breaks above this year's 5.31% close. That would push the RBI into faster hikes, drain reserves further from $734.606 billion ^{[3, 18]}, and push long-term government borrowing costs above the 7.8015% paid on the 2076 bond this week ^[71]. Signposts: Brent above its 8 October jump ^[13], US CPI on 14 October ^[32] and any new weekly fall in reserves on the scale of the $18.343 billion drop in the week to 25 September ^[19].

The long run. On mind, the AI economy is rewarding chipmakers in Taiwan and Korea far more than services exporters, and India will keep paying a valuation discount until it makes hardware, not only software. On matter, India's crude needs and its reliance on China for 80 to 90% of rare-earth magnets ^{[49, 50]} mean that every move in the US-China and US-Iran contests is felt as a price in India. On money, a 5% Treasury yield turns the dollar into the world's best-paid safe asset, and India pays for its independence from both Washington and Beijing with higher rates, a weaker currency and slower inflows. Savers gain from higher deposit rates; borrowers, importers and the government's budget pay.

Sources

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20. KOSPI Falls Behind as U.S., Japan and Taiwan Markets Climb. Seoul Economic Daily, 8 October 2026. https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/08/kospi-falls-behind-as-us-japan-and-taiwan-markets-climb
21. South Korean market is no longer the biggest AI winner in Asia; Know who dethroned it. TradingView, 7 October 2026. https://www.tradingview.com/news/cnbctv:9875b2a3d094b:0/
22. Sensex, Nifty Move Higher, End 2025 On Strong Note. Nasdaq, 31 December 2025. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/sensex-nifty-move-higher-end-2025-strong-note
23. Nifty caps off 2025 with a solid close above 26,100. Aftermarket Report by Zerodha, 31 December 2025. https://aftermarketreport.zerodha.com/p/nifty-caps-off-2025-with-a-solid
24. Nifty 50 Historical Data (NSEI). Investing.com, 9 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/s-p-cnx-nifty-historical-data
25. Indian Stock Market Update: Sensex Jumps 879 Points And Nifty Gains 289 Points As Markets Snap Eight-Week Losing Streak. Kotak Neo, 10 October 2026. https://www.kotakneo.com/news/market-news/indian-stock-market-snaps-eight-week-losing-streak-as-sensex-and-nifty-rebound/
26. KOSPI Historical Data (KS11). Investing.com, 8 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/kospi-historical-data
27. KOSPI rebounds to close above 7,000 for 1st time in 5 sessions. The Korea Times, 2 October 2026. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/others/20261002/kospi-rebounds-to-close-above-7000-for-1st-time-in-5-sessions
28. 코스피, 외인·기관 3.6조 '팔자'에 2.6% 급락, 6600선 [KOSPI plunges 2.6% to the 6,600 level as foreigners and institutions sell 3.6 trillion won]. The Korea Economic Daily, 8 October 2026. https://www.hankyung.com/article/2026100814056
29. KOSPI Plunges 2.62% as Foreign and Institutional Investors Dump ₩4 Trillion in Shares; Index Retreats to 6,600 Level. BigGo Finance, 8 October 2026. https://finance.biggo.com/news/7427f2e6-c4f2-4e01-b049-e2c0d6ae9a0a
30. RBI announces OMO Sale of Government of India Securities. Reserve Bank of India, 9 October 2026. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63779
31. Advance Release Calendar 2026-27. Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, 25 May 2026. https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1779709510470-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20Updated%2025.05.2026.pdf
32. CPI Home. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 11 September 2026. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
33. Regular Press Release Calendar of NBS in 2026. National Bureau of Statistics of China, 26 December 2025. https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
34. Samsung Electronics Announces Earnings Guidance for Third Quarter 2026. Samsung Newsroom, 8 October 2026. https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-earnings-guidance-for-third-quarter-2026
35. Samsung Electronics posts record W107.4tr operating profit in Q3. The Herald Business, 8 October 2026. https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10896324
36. Samsung Electronics 1st Korean firm to top $80 bil. in quarterly operating profit. The Korea Times, 8 October 2026. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20261008/samsung-electronics-1st-korean-firm-to-top-80-bil-in-quarterly-operating-profit
37. KOSPI Falls 2.62% to Close at 6,625.93. Seoul Economic Daily, 8 October 2026. https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/08/kospi-falls-262-percent-to-close-at-662593
38. Foreign investors sell W20.3tr in Korean stocks, led by SK hynix and Samsung Electronics. The Korea Herald, 4 October 2026. https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10892894
39. TSMC September 2026 Revenue Report. TSMC, 8 October 2026. https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3343
40. TCS Q2 FY27 results: Net profit rises 15% to Rs 13,934 crore; declares Rs 12 per share dividend. Business Today, 8 October 2026. https://www.businesstoday.in/markets/stocks/story/tcs-q2-fy27-results-net-profit-rises-15-to-rs-13934-crore-declares-rs-12-dividend-560435-2026-10-08
41. TCS Net Profit Up 0.25% To ₹13,884 Crore In Q2 FY27, Revenue Rises To ₹73,188 Crore. Free Press Journal, 8 October 2026. https://www.freepressjournal.in/amp/business/tcs-net-profit-up-025-to-13884-crore-in-q2-fy27-revenue-rises-to-73188-crore
42. TCS Q2 Results Highlights: Tata Consultancy Services profit rises 15% YoY to ₹13,884 crore, dividend announced. Upstox, 8 October 2026. https://upstox.com/news/market-news/earnings/tcs-q2-results-live-updates-tata-consultancy-services-revenue-profit-ebitda-dividend-latest-news-share-price-oct-8-2026/liveblog-201495/
43. International Growth and Strategic Wins Underpin TCS' Q2. Tata Consultancy Services, 8 October 2026. https://www.tcs.com/who-we-are/newsroom/press-release/tcs-financial-results-q2-fy-2027
44. India's now importing pre-conflict levels of Gulf crude; share of Russian oil lowest since April. ThePrint, 29 September 2026. https://theprint.in/india/india-crude-oil-imports-gulf-supplies/3057012/
45. India's Crude Oil Imports Recover to Pre-Conflict Levels. India News Network, 30 September 2026. https://www.indianewsnetwork.com/en/india-crude-oil-imports-recover-pre-conflict-levels-20260930
46. India's Russian oil imports fall to five-month low as refiners diversify. PSU Watch, 28 September 2026. https://psuwatch.com/newsupdates/indias-russian-oil-imports-fall-to-five-month-low-as-refiners-diversify
47. Oil prices settle as Trump touts 'productive' talks with Iran. Transport Topics, 9 October 2026. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/oil-prices-trump-talks
48. Stock Market Close: Sensex tanks 1,045 pts, Nifty ends at 22,232 as oil tops $104; VIX jumps 10%. Business Standard, 8 October 2026. https://www.business-standard.com/markets/news/stock-market-live-october-8-nse-bse-sensex-today-nifty50-gift-nifty-crude-oil-prices-rbi-repo-rate-hike-ipo-today-126100800108_1.html
49. India to Build Rare-Earth Magnets: Shaktikanta Das hails self-reliance amid China's restrictions & supply chain shocks. Organiser, 5 October 2026. https://organiser.org/2026/10/05/384476/bharat/india-to-build-rare-earth-magnets-shaktikanta-das-hails-self-reliance-amid-chinas-restrictions-supply-chain-shocks/
50. Govt pushes rare-earth magnet capacity as India seeks greater control over critical manufacturing inputs: Shaktikanta Das. Public TV English, 5 October 2026. https://english.publictv.in/govt-pushes-rare-earth-magnet-capacity-as-india-seeks-greater-control-over-critical-manufacturing-inputs-shaktikanta-das/
51. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 16 September 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm
52. US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 46.3 vs 47.8 expected. investingLive, 9 October 2026. https://investinglive.com/news/us-october-umich-prelim-consumer-sentiment-vs-47-8-expected/
53. Stalemate In India-US Trade Talks? Sitharaman Flags 'Give-and-Take Very Difficult'. Outlook India, 6 October 2026. https://www.outlookindia.com/amp/story/national/india-us-trade-talks-hit-plateau-further-give-and-take-very-difficult-sitharaman
54. India-US trade talks hit 'plateau' as concessions narrow: Sitharaman. Fibre2Fashion, 5 October 2026. https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/announcement/india-us-trade-talks-hit-plateau-as-concessions-narrow-sitharaman-313962-newsdetails.htm
55. CGB Yield Curve and Others. ChinaBond, 9 October 2026. https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-pbc-web/pbc/more?locale=en_US
56. Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY). European Central Bank, 9 October 2026. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-cny.en.html
57. TAIEX Total Index Historical Data. Taiwan Stock Exchange, 8 October 2026. https://www.twse.com.tw/en/indices/taiex/mi-5min-hist.html
58. Taiwan Weighted Historical Data (TWII). Investing.com, 8 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/taiwan-weighted-historical-data
59. Taiwan shares close at record high but fall short of 50,000 points. Focus Taiwan, 6 October 2026. https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202610060015
60. Taiwan's TAIEX Ends at Record 49,822.55, Just 31 Points Shy of 50,000 Milestone. BigGo Finance, 6 October 2026. https://finance.biggo.com/news/460f69ca-a753-4271-8600-47e29663c9dc
61. Nikkei 225 Historical Data (N225). Investing.com, 9 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/japan-ni225-historical-data
62. Nikkei Stock Average, Nikkei 225 (NIKKEI225). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 9 October 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NIKKEI225
63. Interest Rate. Ministry of Finance, Japan, 8 October 2026. https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm
64. Change in the Guideline for Money Market Operations. Bank of Japan, 18 September 2026. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/mpr_2026/k260918a.pdf
65. FPI Net Investment Details (Calendar Year). NSDL, 9 October 2026. https://www.fpi.nsdl.co.in/Reports/Yearwise.aspx?RptType=6
66. FIIs sell ₹12,943.58 cr as domestic buying totals ₹10,703.11 cr. NewsBytes, 8 October 2026. https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/fiis-sell-rs1294358-cr-as-domestic-buying-totals-rs1070311-cr/tldr
67. Rupee falls 13 paise to close at 96.88 against US dollar. Deccan Herald, 8 October 2026. https://www.deccanherald.com/business/rupee-falls-13-paise-to-close-at-9688-against-us-dollar-4174984
68. Indian Rupee Gains 23 Paise to 96.65 Against US Dollar. APAC Digital News Network, 9 October 2026. https://apacnewsnetwork.com/2026/10/indian-rupee-gains-23-paise-9665-us-dollar/
69. Rupee rises 17 paise to close at 96.71 against US dollar. ThePrint, 9 October 2026. https://theprint.in/economy/rupee-rises-17-paise-to-close-at-96-71-against-us-dollar/3067093/
70. India rupee posts weekly fall despite rate hike amid adverse flows, weak sentiment. Business Recorder, 9 October 2026. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40443452/india-rupee-posts-weekly-fall-despite-rate-hike-amid-adverse-flows-weak-sentiment
71. Government Stock - Auction Results: Cut-off. Reserve Bank of India, 9 October 2026. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63774
72. Sensex surges 879 points, Nifty reclaims 22,500 as IT stocks rally. ap7am.com, 9 October 2026. https://www.ap7am.com/en/137397/sensex-surges-879-points-nifty-reclaims-22500-as-it-stocks-rally
73. Market weekly wrap: SENSEX, NIFTY50 break 8 weeks of losing streak; oil prices, RBI rate hike, among key triggers. Upstox, 10 October 2026. https://upstox.com/news/market-news/stocks/market-weekly-wrap-sensex-nifty-50-break-8-weeks-of-losing-streak-oil-prices-rbi-rate-hike-among-key-triggers/article-201624/
74. South Korean won (KRW). European Central Bank, 9 October 2026. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-krw.en.html
75. Indian Rupees to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXINUS). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2 October 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXINUS
76. South Korean Won to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXKOUS). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2 October 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXKOUS
77. Chinese Yuan Renminbi to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCHUS). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2 October 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS
78. FII/FPI & DII trading activity in Capital Market segment. National Stock Exchange of India, 9 October 2026. https://www.nseindia.com/reports/fii-dii
79. Trading Value of Foreign & Other Investors. Taiwan Stock Exchange, 6 October 2026. https://www.twse.com.tw/en/trading/foreign/bfi82u.html
80. Taiwan Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXTAUS). FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2 October 2026. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXTAUS
81. Shanghai Composite Historical Data (SSEC). Investing.com, 9 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite-historical-data
82. SSE Composite Ends Flat at 3,813.79 After Erasing a 1.5% Intraday Drop as AI and Chip Stocks Stay Under Pressure. BBN Times, 9 October 2026. https://www.bbntimes.com/companies/sse-composite-ends-flat-at-3-813-79-after-erasing-a-1-5-intraday-drop-as-ai-and-chip-stocks-stay-under-pressure
83. Hang Seng Historical Data (HSI). Investing.com, 9 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/indices/hang-sen-40-historical-data
84. Hang Seng Jumps to 24,211.35 as Xiaomi, Tencent and Internet Stocks Lead a Sharp Rebound in Hong Kong. BBN Times, 9 October 2026. https://www.bbntimes.com/financial/hang-seng-jumps-to-24-211-35-as-xiaomi-tencent-and-internet-stocks-lead-a-sharp-rebound-in-hong-kong
85. Hong Kong dollar (HKD). European Central Bank, 9 October 2026. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-hkd.en.html
86. Japanese yen (JPY). European Central Bank, 9 October 2026. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-jpy.en.html
87. South Korea 10-Year Bond Historical Data. Investing.com, 8 October 2026. https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/south-korea-10-year-bond-yield-historical-data
88. 국고채 금리 혼조세, 3년물 연 3.983% [Government bond yields mixed; 3-year at 3.983%]. SBS Biz, 8 October 2026. https://biz.sbs.co.kr/article/20000339059
89. Result of Underwriting Auction conducted on October 09, 2026. Reserve Bank of India, 9 October 2026. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=63768
90. Foreign Investors Dump 20 Trillion Won in Korean Stocks in a Month. Seoul Economic Daily, 5 October 2026. https://en.sedaily.com/finance/2026/10/05/foreign-investors-dump-20-trillion-won-in-korean-stocks-in
91. India services growth picks up in September, PMI touches 55.2. DD India, 6 October 2026. https://ddindia.co.in/2026/10/india-services-growth-picks-up-in-september-pmi-touches-55-2/
92. India Services PMI Rises to 55.2 in September 2026 as Demand Improves. Angel One, 6 October 2026. https://www.angelone.in/news/economy/india-services-pmi-rises-to-55-2-in-september-2026-as-demand-improves
93. HCL Technologies to host Q2FY27 earnings call on October 12. ScanX, 5 October 2026. https://scanx.trade/stock-market-news/companies/hcl-technologies-host-q2fy27-earnings-call-october-12/52750562
94. HCLTech Share Price in Focus; Board to Consider Q2FY27 Results on October 12, 2026. Angel One, 18 September 2026. https://www.angelone.in/news/stocks/hcltech-share-price-in-focus-board-to-consider-q2fy27-results-on-october-12-2026
95. Advance Release Calendar: Wholesale Price Index, Output Producer Price Index, Trial Input Producer Price Index. Office of the Economic Adviser, DPIIT, 7 July 2026. https://eaindustry.nic.in/uploaded_files/wpi/Advance_Release_Calander_WPI_OPPI_IPPI.pdf
96. Meeting calendars and information. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 7 October 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
97. September 16, 2026: FOMC Projections materials, accessible version. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 16 September 2026. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
98. Why The 10-Year Treasury Yield Just Hit A 24-Year High. Forbes, 7 October 2026. https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/10/07/why-the-10-year-treasury-yield-just-hit-a-24-year-high/
99. Monetary Policy Meetings. Bank of Japan. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm
100. Market Timings & Holidays. National Stock Exchange of India. https://www.nseindia.com/resources/exchange-communication-holidays
101. Notice of Board meeting. Infosys, 15 September 2026. https://www.infosys.com/investors/documents/exchange-filings/2026/notice-board-meeting-15sep2026.pdf
102. Infosys Q2 results: Check IT firm's earnings date, plans to expand Indore development centre; stock to be in focus. Upstox, 16 September 2026. https://upstox.com/news/market-news/stocks/infosys-q2-results-check-it-firm-s-earnings-date-plans-to-expand-indore-development-centre-stock-to-be-in-focus/article-200374/